Adaptive Optimized Pattern Extracting Algorithm for Forecasting Maximum Electrical Load Duration Using Random Sampling and Cumulative Slope Index

Abstract

Load forecasting techniques can be an essential method to save energy and shave peak loads in order to improve energy efficiency and maintain the stability of a power grid. To achieve this goal, machine learning-based approaches have been proposed recently. Before moving toward the long-term and ultimate solution such as machine learning, we propose a simple and efficient method to forecast electricity usage patterns and the duration of maximum electrical load using a small data set. The proposed algorithm can forecast maximum electrical load duration using random sampling and a cumulative slope index. To verify the algorithm, we utilized electricity data (from 2015.11 to 2016.12) obtained from a building with a constant lifestyle and electricity pattern. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated using electricity bills, the discharging condition of an energy storage system, and the cumulative slope index. It was found that the proposed algorithm could provide electricity cost savings of 0.62-2.28% compared with other, conventional electricity prediction techniques, such as the moving average method and exponential smoothing. In near future research, it is expected that this algorithm could be applied to electrical big data to handle real-time data processing.