Time-varying networks are fast emerging in a wide range of scientific and business disciplines. Most existing dynamic network models are limited to a single-subject and discrete-time setting. In this article, we propose a mixed-effect multi-subject continuous-time stochastic blockmodel that characterizes the time-varying behavior of the network at the population level, meanwhile taking into account individual subject variability. We develop a multi-step optimization procedure for a constrained stochastic blockmodel estimation, and derive the asymptotic property of the estimator. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through both simulations and an application to a study of brain development in youth.KEY WORDS: brain connectivity analysis; fused lasso; generalized linear mixed-effect model; stochastic blockmodel; time-varying network
IntroductionThe study of networks has recently attracted enormous attention, as they provide a natural characterization of many complex social, physical and biological systems. A variety 1 arXiv:1806.03829v1 [stat.ME] ; Zhao et al., 2017, among many others). See also Kolaczyk (2009) for a review. To date, much research, however, has focused on static networks, where a single snapshot of the network is observed and modeled. Dynamic networks, where the data consist of a sequence of snapshots of the network that evolves over time, are fast emerging. Examples include brain connectivity networks, gene regulatory networks, protein signaling networks, and terrorist networks. Modeling of dynamic networks has appeared only recently (Xu and Hero, 2014;Matias and Miele, 2017;Pensky, 2016;Zhang and Cao, 2017). Most existing dynamic network models, however, considered a discrete-time and single-subject setting, in which the network observed at multiple time points is based upon the same study subject; the snapshots of the dynamic network are observed on a finite and typically small number of discrete time points. Methodology for modeling dynamic networks in a multi-subject and continuous-time setting remains largely missing. In this article, we develop a new network Stochastic blockmodels have been intensively studied in the networks literature (Nowicki and Snijders, 2001;Bickel and Chen, 2009;Rohe et al., 2011;Zhao et al., 2012), and there have been some recent studies of dynamic stochastic blockmodels (Xu and Hero, 2014;Matias and Miele, 2017;Zhang and Cao, 2017). However, the existing models assume a single-subject and discrete-time setting, and thus are not directly applicable to our data problem. In contrast, by introducing a mixed-effect term in the stochastic blockmodel, our new proposal adapts to the multi-subject setting. It both characterizes the time-varying behavior of the network at the population level, and accounts for subject-specific variability. Moreover, by modeling the connecting probabilities as functions of the time variable, our method works for the continuous-time setting. In addition, we introduce a shape constraint and a fusion constraint to further regularize an...