Adding value to the intelligence community: what role for expert external advice?

Abstract

Reviews of intelligence failures have recommended greater use of external expertise in challenging intelligence community assessments. External contributions were expected to augment covert collection and to provide open source challenge to analysts, rather than to directly contribute to decision support. The structural limitations of the scope and machinery of intelligence have limited the value agencies can extract from external experts. Creating an Open Source Intelligence Agency of commensurate size to primary intelligence organisations would enable decision support to be provided to all government departments. It would widen the pool of sources and experts, providing for greater extraction of value from experts who are only partially included in this government activity.2 Eldridge et al, 'Fusing Algorithms', 392.3 Hulnick described OSINT as peculiarly effective as a tool for early warning: Hulnick, 'The Dilemma of OSINT', p.232. 4 The over-reading of the new-ness of globalisation is effectively rebutted by Justin Rosenberg. Rosenberg, 'Globalisation Theory', pp450-482. Marret is credited with coining the term 'glocal' in relation to Al-Qaeda: Marret, 'Al-Qaeda', 543. 5 Barber, Jihad vs McWorld. 6 Mahbubani, Has China Won?. 7 Davies and Gustasfson, 'Complexity, Uncertainty ', pp.1-20. 8 Whilst Steven Stollemyre discusses automated forms of crowdsourcing for intelligence, my argument here could be seen to align to Stolleymyre's broad argument. 'Solleymyre, HUMINT, OSINT or Something New?', p.580. 9 Peter Gill makes a persuasive case for the role of intelligence during and after the pandemic: Gill, 'Intelligence Oversight', p.15. 10 UK Parliament, 'COVID-19'. 11 UK Parliament, 'COVID-19'.

The Role of the Media and Civil Society in Intelligence Accountability

“…It is thought that intelligence, despite its secrecy, can become more accessible to citizens. For example, intelligence organizations could discuss the goals of intelligence with the public creating new technicalcitizen bodies (Dover, 2020). Comprised by practitioners, journalists, scholars, writers, educators, and other civil actors, these bodies can obtain more power and complement legislative and judicial mechanisms.…”

How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul

“…An exploration of what the IC could have known contributes to discussions of how non-governmental expertise can improve intelligence estimates. 21 While this is here only raised in the margins, this is another neglected aspect in the German context where relationships between foreign policymakers and external experts tend to be uneasy. 22 This article proceeds as follows.…”