Addressing Impact Evaluation Gaps in Belt and Road Initiative Projects in Africa: The Standard Gauge Railway Project in Kenya as a Proof of Concept

Abstract

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to global development will be unprecedented and significant, and developmental impact evaluation is therefore central to understanding BRI projects and making informed decisions. Compared with evaluations of individual projects and programs, evaluation of large and mega infrastructure projects under the BRI is particularly challenging and complex in integrating stakeholder objectives, accounting for social benefit and costs, and tracking long-term project impact. In this paper, we summarize the key drawbacks of existing BRI evaluation frameworks, propose a systematic evaluation framework elicitation method based on the inputs from BRI subject matter experts and verified through stakeholder participation, and apply an interim evaluation framework in understanding the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway project in Kenya, as a proof of concept of a comprehensive evaluation framework. In doing so, we seek to provide a tool for BRI decision makers and stakeholders to assess these projects holistically at planning, construction and operation stages.

Socio‐economic impact of China's infrastructure‐led growth model in Africa: A case study of the Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway

“…Based on a literature review of existing evaluation frameworks and BRI literature (Zhu et al, 2020), 14 impact domains were included in the questionnaire: trade (exchange and free flow of goods and services); connectivity (speed, volume, safety and efficiency of transportation routes); cross‐country economic integration (integration of economic activities across different countries); local business development (thriving of local companies, including small and medium enterprises); employment (creation of jobs opportunities in the short term and long term); technological transfer (transfer the skills to build, operate and maintain the project to locals); financial sustainability (the project is finished within budget, with an acceptable level of debt); corruption (there is no corruption and illegal transaction in project development); international relations (affecting the strategic interests of and relationship with other countries); security (free from danger or threat from other countries' military presence and terrorism); environment (changes in natural and built environment, pollution and natural disasters); health (physical and mental health conditions of individuals in the affected community); demographic changes (migration pattern, age, gender, ethnicity, education and income level of the affected population); and community attitude (community's acceptance of and support for the project). …”

“…Assessing the socio‐economic effects of a large‐scale transportation project is inherently complex because of the need to balance benefits to users and effects on other community residents and trade‐offs between positive and negative impacts on different stakeholder groups (Forkenbrock & Weisbrod, 2001). A multi‐stakeholder approach is needed to comprehensively assess project impacts (Zhu et al, 2020, 2021). Developing countries' realities add to this complexity due to limited statistical capacity, use of outdated data and methods, large agricultural sector leading to highly fluctuating economic outcomes and large undercounted informal economies and limited price data (Angrist et al, 2021).…”

“…Assessing the socio-economic effects of a large-scale transportation project is inherently complex because of the need to balance benefits to users and effects on other community residents and trade-offs between positive and negative impacts on different stakeholder groups (Forkenbrock & Weisbrod, 2001). A multi-stakeholder approach is needed to comprehensively assess project impacts (Zhu et al, 2020(Zhu et al, , 2021.…”

“…Based on a literature review of existing evaluation frameworks and BRI literature (Zhu et al, 2020), 14 impact domains were included in the questionnaire:…”

Improvised Hybridity in the “Fixing” of Chinese Infrastructure Capital: The Case of Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway

“…In empirical terms, analysing Kenya's SGR as both a megaproject driven by a financial profit‐seeking Chinese contractor and a politically charged “flagship” project under BRI's global development vision (Zhu et al. 2020:440), we outlined how the “spatial fix” of China's infrastructure capital is produced in a specific time and place. Although corporate profit‐seeking of the contracting SOE envisioned steady financial returns both at the corporate level and in the national economy, and therefore was a driving force for implementing the SGR project, the realisation and performance of the new railway project has been unstable.…”