A simulation model is presented that assumes that persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) is a necessary cause of cervical cancer. For the estimation of the model parameters, data of recent Dutch follow-up studies were reanalyzed. The predicted incidences of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3) and abnormal cytology were validated with nationwide figures and population-based screening results. The model predicted a lifetime risk for cervical cancer of 2.9% with a peak at age 48 years. The predicted lifetime risk dropped to 0.4% when attending cervical screening. For women who were not hrHPV infected at 30 years, the lifetime risk was 1.6%. Sensitivity analyses were performed to check natural history assumptions that were only weakly identified from available data sets. The incidence of CIN3 observed with screening appeared a useful clinical end point as the predicted incidence was robust against changes in the sensitivity of cervical cytology and the duration to CIN3. The model can be used to study the healtheconomic benefits that can be achieved in nationwide screening when including an hrHPV test. ' 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.Key words: cervical neoplasms; cytology; cost effectiveness; human papillomavirus; longitudinal studies; models; screening Population-based screening is regarded as an effective method for reducing the incidence of invasive cervical cancer. Epidemiologic studies report that in countries where cytologic screening has been implemented, the incidence of cervical cancer has shown a larger decrease than in countries without screening. 1,2 Although many countries subscribe to the necessity of screening, each country has its own screening program and different opinions about the optimal program remain.Because persistent infection with the high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) is the key causative agent of cervical cancer, 3,4 many recent and ongoing longitudinal studies have examined whether a test for detection of hrHPV in addition to cytologic inspection increases the efficacy of screening. 5-9 Combined screening (hrHPV and cytology) leads to an earlier detection of women who are at risk for developing high-grade lesions 10 and has a higher sensitivity for the detection of high-grade lesions. 11 However, hrHPV testing also induces extra screening costs so that the determination of the optimal screening scenario involves an elaborate cost-effectiveness analysis.An attractive way to study the efficacy of different screening scenarios is simulation modeling. 12-16 Simulation enables us to combine the results of several studies, compare a large number of scenarios and provides an assessment of the costs and effectiveness in preventing cancer. A simulation model requires the specification of an underlying natural history model that describes health trajectories of women in an unscreened population. We present a natural history model for women in the Netherlands between 30 and 80 years of age and apply the model to predict the incidence of ne...