INTRODUCTIONUsing nationwide cohort data, we aimed to elucidate whether baseline obesity altered the relationship between loss in body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC) and risk of dementia.METHODSAmong 9689 participants whose BMIs and WCs were repeatedly measured over 1 year, 1:1 propensity score matching was conducted between participants with and without obesity (n = 2976 per group, mean age 70.9). For each group, we explored the association between loss in BMI, or WC, and incidence of dementia during an approximately 4‐year follow‐up period.RESULTSBMI loss was associated with an increased risk of all‐cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease in participants without obesity; however, this association was absent in participants with obesity. WC loss was associated with decreased Alzheimer's disease risk only in participants with obesity.DISCUSSIONOnly unfavorable loss (loss from non‐obese state) in BMI, not WC, can be a metabolic biomarker of prodromal dementia.