Adjusting Flood Peak Frequency Changes to Account for Climate Change Impacts in the Western United States

Maurer, Edwin P.; Kayser, Gretchen; Doyle, Laura; Wood, Andrew W.

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000903

Cited by 32 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Stewart, Ficklin, Carrillo, and McIntosh (2015) reported model predictions of increasing high flows for the winter and spring seasons, with little or no change in the occurrence of summer and fall high flows. They predicted increases of 150+% for the upper Merced River drainages, consistent with independent modelling results by Maurer, Kayser, Doyle, and Wood (2018).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Opportunities and challenges for restoration of the Merced River through Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

Booth

Ross‐Smith

Haddon

et al. 2020

River Research & Apps

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Successful river restoration requires understanding and integration of multiple disciplinary perspectives, including evaluations of past and ongoing watershed processes, local geomorphic response, and impacts unique to human activity. Nowhere is this more apparent than along the Merced River in Yosemite National Park, USA, where both an outstanding natural landscape and the consequences of over a century of human disturbances continue to interact. An intact upstream watershed highlights the importance here of local impacts on geomorphic response. Incision and the resulting decoupling of the channel from its adjacent late‐Holocene floodplain are consequences of reduced channel roughness, likely from de‐snagging the river, and instream gravel mining in the 19th and early 20th century. Riparian‐zone disturbance by visitor use has damaged riparian vegetation and soils, inducing channel widening. Revetments and channel‐spanning bridges, the latter being visible and oft‐cited impacts to fluvial processes, have distorted the natural evolution of meanders and induced local channel narrowing. The historical rate of sediment export from Yosemite Valley has greatly exceeded replenishment from upstream and lateral sources, creating a deficit that now inhibits recovery via passive restoration of more natural channel form and function. Climate change may amplify now‐diminished fluvial processes but also exacerbate the rate of sediment export. These conditions, reflecting a complex intersection of geologic history, modern geomorphic processes, and human interactions, demonstrate how a limited influx of sediment coupled with intensive human use can have long‐term consequences for riverine conditions, restoration opportunities, and social engagement with the riverine landscape.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Opportunities and challenges for restoration of the Merced River through Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

Booth

Ross‐Smith

Haddon

et al. 2020

River Research & Apps

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“…This conclusion is somewhat consistent with findings made based on the trend analyses of extreme events. While some studies investigating future climate situations are focusing on floods and high-flows [12][13][14][15][16], other studies can be found that are oriented on the mean [17] and low-flow dynamics [18]. Despite the fact that it is estimated that karst covers about 25% of the Earth's surface [19] and about the same percentage of the world's population depends on freshwater from karst sources [20], a small number of studies have focused on the future low-flow dynamics of karst areas [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Low- and High-Flow Characteristics of Karst Catchments under Climate Change

Sapač

Medved

Rusjan

et al. 2019

Water

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It is not clear how projected climate change will impact the hydrological functioning of complex catchments that have significant karst characteristics. Therefore, in this paper we focused on the investigation of the low- and high-flow characteristics of the karst Ljubljanica River catchment. One smaller (51 km2) and one larger (1135 km2) catchment were selected in order to investigate the projected climate change impact on the hydrological conditions. For the investigation of the hydrological situation in the future, we used a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The model was calibrated using past measured daily data. Using the calibrated model, we investigated the impact of five different climate models outputs for the moderately optimistic scenario (RCP4.5). We investigated the situation in next 30-years periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. Several low and high-flow indices were calculated and compared. The results indicate that a summer precipitation decrease (i.e., 2011–2070) could lead to lower low-flow values for the investigated areas, which could increase the vulnerability of karst areas. Thus, additional focus should be given to water resource management in karst areas. On the other hand, mean flow could increase in the future. The same also applies for the high-flows where flood frequency analysis results indicate that a climate adaptation factor could be used for the hydrotechnical engineering design. However, differences among investigated models are large and show large variability among investigated cases.

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“…Further research is warranted on this topic. Overall, decreasing synchrony serves as one factor that dampens the forced increases in AMFs along lower reaches of Columbia in the multimodel ensembles simulations of Chegwidden et al (2017) and, we speculate, also contribute to the very small to negative changes in high-flow extremes reported in Tohver et al (2014) and Maurer et al (2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

Changing River Network Synchrony Modulates Projected Increases in High Flows

Rupp

Chegwidden

Nijssen

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Adjusting Flood Peak Frequency Changes to Account for Climate Change Impacts in the Western United States

Cited by 32 publications

References 58 publications

Opportunities and challenges for restoration of the Merced River through Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

Opportunities and challenges for restoration of the Merced River through Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

Investigation of Low- and High-Flow Characteristics of Karst Catchments under Climate Change

Changing River Network Synchrony Modulates Projected Increases in High Flows

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