Adjuvant chemotherapy or no adjuvant chemotherapy? A prediction model for the risk stratification of recurrence or metastasis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma combining MRI radiomics with clinical factors

Abstract

Background Dose adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) should be offered in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients? Different guidelines provided the different recommendations. Methods In this retrospective study, a total of 140 patients were enrolled and followed for 3 years, with 24 clinical features being collected. The imaging features on the enhanced-MRI sequence were extracted by using PyRadiomics platform. The pearson correlation coefficient and the random forest was used to filter the features associated with recurrence or metastasis. A clinical-radiomics model (CRM) was constructed by the Cox multivariable analysis in training cohort, and was validated in validation cohort. All patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups through the median Rad-score of the model. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the 3-year recurrence or metastasis free rate (RMFR) of patients with or without AC in high- and low-groups. Results In total, 960 imaging features were extracted. A CRM was constructed from nine features (seven imaging features and two clinical factors). In the training cohort, the area under curve (AUC) of CRM for 3-year RMFR was 0.872 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.935 and 0.672, respectively; In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.864 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 and 0.75, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the 3-year RMFR and 3-year cancer specific survival (CSS) rate in the high-risk group were significantly lower than those in the low-risk group (P <0.001). In the high-risk group, patients who received AC had greater 3-year RMFR than those who did not receive AC (78.6% vs. 48.1%) (p = 0.03). Conclusion Considering increasing RMFR, a prediction model for NPC based on two clinical factors and seven imaging features suggested the AC needs to be added to patients in the high-risk group and not in the low-risk group.