Admission Resting Heart Rate as an Independent Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture

Wang, Zhicong; Chen, Xi; Wu, Yuxuan; Jiang, Wei; Yang, Ling; Wang, Hong; Liu, Shuping; Liu, Yuehong

doi:10.2147/ijgm.s333971

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…When HR is < 70 or > 90, the mortality of patients increases [9]. Our study also showed that higher HR is a risk factor for hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures, which is consistent with previous research results [10].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

XING,

WU,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background The incidence of nonhip femoral fractures is gradually increasing, but no studies have explored the risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures in the ICU or developed mortality prediction models. Therefore, we chose to study this specific patient group, hoping to help clinicians improve the prognosis of patients.Methods The ROC curve was drawn, and the AUC, NRI and IDI were calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the model. The consistency between the actual probability and the predicted probability was assessed by the calibration curve and HL test. DCA was performed, and the nomogram was compared with the scoring system commonly used in clinical practice to evaluate the clinical net benefit.Results The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis showed that heart rate, temperature, red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, GCS, SA PSII, Charlson comorbidity index and cerebrovascular disease were independent risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures. The areas under the curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI) of our model in the training set and validation set were better than those of the GCS and SAPSII scoring systems. The calibration curve and HL test results showed that our model prediction results were in good agreement with the actual results (P = 0.833 for the HL test of the training set and P = 0.767 for the HL test of the validation set). Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that our model had a better clinical net benefit than the GCS and SAPSII scoring systems..Conclusion In this study, the independent risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures were determined, and a prediction model was constructed. The results of this study may help to improve the clinical prognosis of patients with nonhip femoral fractures.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

XING,

WU,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study using our own hip fracture database, which is a longitudinal observational clinical database focusing on the prognosis of hip fracture (18,19,(30)(31)(32). This electronic database belongs to Deyang Clinical Research Center for Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, which is affiliated with the orthopedic department of People's Hospital of Deyang City that provides comprehensive medical care to approximately 3.5 million residents.…”

Section: Study Design and Patientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, to our knowledge, no studies have investigated this relationship in hip fracture patients with a high risk of death. Our research team have established a hip fracture database that is widely used for prognosis studies (18,19,(30)(31)(32). Therefore, using this database over a 10-year period (2013-2022), we aimed to explore the potential association between SIRI and mortality in older patients with hip fracture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of systemic inflammation response index with mortality risk in older patients with hip fracture: a 10-year retrospective cohort study

Fang,

Gao,

Wang

et al. 2024

Front. Med.

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ObjectiveWith a rapidly aging global population, the assessment of mortality risk following hip fracture in older adults has received increasing attention. Recently, the system inflammation response index (SIRI) has been identified as a novel prognostic marker to reflect both systemic inflammation and immune status. However, it is not yet known whether SIRI is a potential predictor of subsequent death in hip fracture patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between SIRI and mortality in older patients with hip fracture.MethodsA total of 1,206 older hip fracture patients undergoing surgery between January 2013 and December 2022 were consecutively derived from our longitudinal database. Patients were divided into three groups according to SIRI tertiles, calculated as neutrophil × monocyte / lymphocyte. Survival status was obtained from medical records or telephone interviews, and the study outcome was all-cause mortality after hip fracture at the longest follow-up. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression model were used to evaluate the association between SIRI and mortality. Moreover, a series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to further validate the robustness of the association.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 43.85 months, 337 patients (27.94%) died. After full adjustment, each unit increase in SIRI was significantly associated with a 2.2% increase in overall mortality (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001–1.042, p = 0.029). Similarly, compared with the first tertile of SIRI, the second and third tertile showed a 1.335-fold (95% CI: 1.011–1.762, p = 0.042) and 1.447-fold (95% CI, 1.093–1.917, p = 0.010) higher risk of death. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the stability of the association. Moreover, RCS analysis revealed a positive non-linear relationship between SIRI and mortality (P for nonlinearity = 0.021).ConclusionHigh SIRI level at admission was significantly and positively associated with an increased risk of death, suggesting that SIRI may be an independent predictor of mortality in older patients with hip fracture.

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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

Xing,

Xu,

et al. 2023

Eur J Med Res

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Background The incidence of nonhip femoral fractures is gradually increasing, but few studies have explored the risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures in the ICU or developed mortality prediction models. Therefore, we chose to study this specific patient group, hoping to help clinicians improve the prognosis of patients. Methods This is a retrospective study based on the data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the areas under the curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the model. The consistency between the actual probability and the predicted probability was assessed by the calibration curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test (HL test). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed, and the nomogram was compared with the scoring system commonly used in clinical practice to evaluate the clinical net benefit. Results The LASSO regression analysis showed that heart rate, temperature, red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII), Charlson comorbidity index and cerebrovascular disease were independent risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures. The AUC, IDI and NRI of our model in the training set and validation set were better than those of the GCS and SAPSII scoring systems. The calibration curve and HL test results showed that our model prediction results were in good agreement with the actual results (P = 0.833 for the HL test of the training set and P = 0.767 for the HL test of the validation set). DCA showed that our model had a better clinical net benefit than the GCS and SAPSII scoring systems. Conclusion In this study, the independent risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with nonhip femoral fractures were determined, and a prediction model was constructed. The results of this study may help to improve the clinical prognosis of patients with nonhip femoral fractures.

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Admission Resting Heart Rate as an Independent Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture

Cited by 3 publications

References 29 publications

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

Association of systemic inflammation response index with mortality risk in older patients with hip fracture: a 10-year retrospective cohort study

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhip femoral fractures

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