BackgroundAcute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) implies high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Proper prognosing these patients is crucial for early referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF score in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive when compared to other scoring systems. The purpose of the study is (i) to compare the predictive performance of original MELD, MELD-Lactate, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF-Lactate, and APACHE-II scores for short-term mortality assessment. (ii) to build and validate a novel scoring system and to compare its predictive performance to that of the original ve scores. Methods 265 consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF who were admitted to our ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for mortality were assessed by ROC analysis. A novel model was developed and internally validated using 5-fold cross-validation.
ResultsAlcohol abuse was identi ed as the primary etiology of cirrhosis. The AUROC of the ve prognostic scores in predicting one-month mortality prediction were not signi cantly superior to each other in predicting one-month and three-month mortality. The newly developed prognostic model, incorporating age, A-a gradient, BUN, total bilirubin level, INR, and HE grades, exhibited signi cantly improved performance in predicting one-month and three-month mortality with AUROC of 0.863 and 0.829, respectively, as compared to the original ve prognostic scores.
ConclusionsThe novel ACLF model is superior to the original ve scores in predicting short-term mortality for ACLF patients admitted to an ICU. Further rigorous validation is required.necessitating urgent liver transplantation (LT) 6,7 . Due to the short transplantation window, a rapid decision-making process is necessary 6,7 .Two important issues for a successful bridging to LT are accurate prognostication and prioritization of ACLF patients awaiting LT 6 . Therefore, it is essential to develop an accurate prognostic score to estimate the outcomes in ACLF patients and help guide clinicians in determining the appropriate treatment options according to the predicted outcomes 8 . Despite the development of several prognostic scoring systems for evaluating outcomes and organ dysfunction in ICU patients 9,10 , accurately predicting short-and long-term mortality remains a signi cant challenge 11 . The European Association for the Study of the Liver--Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Consortium developed the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) by simplifying the original CLIF-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score based on CLIF-C organ failure (OF) scores, which demonstrated higher prognostic accuracy than the CLIF-SOFA, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh (CP) scores 12 for ACLF patients. It was also externally validated in ACLF patients hospitalized in a single ICU 12 . The CLIF-C ACLF-D score was derived from the Predicting Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (PREDICT) study 13 . The newly de...