for helpful discussions and comments. They also thank Zidong An, Huancheng Du, and Shihui Liu for outstanding research assistance. This paper is part of a research project on macroeconomic policy in low-income countries supported by the U.K.'s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve System, the International Monetary Fund, its executive board, or its management.