The relative proportions of metal residing in ore in the lithosphere, in use in products providing services, and in waste deposits measure our progress from exclusive use of virgin ore toward full dependence on sustained use of recycled metal. In the U.S. at present, the copper contents of these three repositories are roughly equivalent, but metal in service continues to increase. Providing today's developed-country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.copper ͉ material flow analysis ͉ metal services F or at least three decades, scientists and economists have debated whether humanity is rapidly depleting the resources on which it depends (1-4). Unlike oil, which is irremediably consumed when used, metals have the potential for almost infinite recovery and reuse. Nonetheless, the rate of extraction of many geochemically scarce metals from the lithosphere has increased in excess of 3% per year through the last half century or longer and continues to do so. Because these are finite resources, it is instructive to ponder how long these extraction rates can be sustained.As goods in use are increased and replenished, metal is transferred from the stock of ore in the lithosphere to a stock of metal-in-use providing services, and some of the metal in the original ore is transferred to wastes during mining, milling, and smelting. Over time, some of the metal-in-use recycles from old to new products, some is dissipated through corrosion and wear, and some enters waste repositories such as landfills in the end-of-life products that are not recycled. The relative sizes of the remaining stock in the lithosphere, the stock-in-use, and the stock transferred to wastes at any given time are measures of how far we have progressed toward the need for total reliance on recycling rather than on virgin ore to provide material for new products.The demand for metal resides in the services that people receive from metal and metal-containing products, e.g., housing, transportation, and electrical power. The amount of metal in use therefore depends on the level of services and the efficiency with which metal is used in providing those services. For example, attaining a specified level of illumination in a home depends on a stock of copper in power station equipment and in transmission lines; this stock can increase if more illumination is wanted and decrease if new techniques permit the same amount of power to be generated and transmitted with less copper. Eventually the equipment and transmission lines reach the end of their service lives and are replaced. This end-of-life copper may be recycled or landfilled; if the latter, dilution with other wastes will make future recovery unlikely unless considerably improved technologies to separate metals from mixed, primarily organic, materials are implemented.Few, if any, metals have u...