Watershed management in Mexico is generally carried out based on hydrological information, whereas water quality data are mainly used in the control of wastewater discharges and water uses. Information on toxic contaminants is scarce and expensive to gather. A method was developed to predict inorganic contaminant concentration in Lake Chapala, Mexico, by using hydrological data for water balance, water quality information and analyses, sediment quality monitoring data, and ap-
Aquatic Sciencesplying a chemical equilibrium model to estimate the possibility of increase in cadmium concentration. It is shown that decreasing water levels in Lake Chapala can lead to a significant increase in dissolved cadmium that, in the future, may affect the lake ecosystem and the water quality for different uses. Watershed managers can use this method with one by van Afferden and Hansen (2004) as an early warning system to reduce the risk that contaminant concentrations increase in the lake.