Advanced solar R&amp;D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

Baker, Erin; Chon, Haewon; Keisler, Jeffrey M.

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2007.10.008

Cited by 99 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…First, we provide the first elicitation of European experts on the future potential of energy technologies. Expert elicitation has been widely used in the USA to gather probabilistic information on the potential success of carbon-free energy technologies (e.g., Baker et al, 2009aBaker et al, , 2009bBaker and Keisler, 2011;Curtright et al, 2008;Chan et al, 2011), but so far it has not been carried out in Europe. Interviewing EU experts represents a crucial contribution to predicting solar technologies developments given that Europe is a leading country area in terms of installed photovoltaic capacity.…”

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confidence: 99%

The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

et al. 2012

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SummaryIn this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models. Table 1 Abstract: In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models. Keywords The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement n° 240895 -project ICARUS "Innovation for Climate Change Mitigation: a Study of energy R&D, its Uncertain Effectiveness and Spillovers".We would like to thank the participating experts listed in

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The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

et al. 2012

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“…Biogas PV technologies Baker et al, 2009b;Curtright et al, 2008), cellulosic biofuels (Fiorese et al, 2013;Baker and Keisler, 2011). Kretschmer and Bennett (2011) surveyed experts' opinions on electricity from biomass technologies and their future potentials.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Power of Biomass: Experts Disclose the Potential for Success of Bioenergy Technologies

et al. 2013

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This paper focuses on technologies which use thermochemical or biochemical processes to convert biomass into electricity.We present the results from an expert elicitation exercise involving sixteen leading experts coming from different EU Member States. Aim of the elicitation was to assess the potential cost reduction of RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration) efforts and to identify barriers to the diffusion of these technologies. The research sheds light on the future potential of bioenergy technologies both in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD countries. The results we present are an important input both for the integrated assessment modeling community and for policy makers who draft public RD&D strategies.

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“…In the UMass studies (Baker & Keisler, 2011;Baker, et al, 2009b;Baker, et al, 2009a;Baker, et al, 2008;Clarke & Baker, 2011) experts reviewed a primer on expert elicitation discussing possible biases. As the experts gave their probabilities (or after completing the survey in the case of mail surveys), the analysts used a series of probes aimed at debiasing, including asking about disconfirming evidence, asking backcasting type questions, and reminding the experts of overconfidence, especially when probabilities were very near 0 or 1.…”

Section: Elicitation Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This workshop concluded that (1) the large and growing elicitation data sources need to be integrated with each other and with other relevant data on technology supply, and (2) that the integrated data needs to be communicated in ways that are useful to a variety of users, including both government decision makers and researchers who require expert technology supply information for their research. (Clarke & Baker, 2011) This paper outlines the results of three major expert elicitation efforts carried out independently by researchers at UMass Amherst (Baker & Keisler, 2011;Baker, et al, 2009b;Baker, et al, 2009a;Baker, et al, 2008), Harvard (Anadon, et al, 2011;Anadon, et al, 2012;Anadón, et al, 2014a;Chan, et al, 2011), and FEEM (Bosetti, et al, 2012;Catenacci, et al, 2013;Fiorese, et al, 2013). Each of the three groups covered many of the most promising future clean energy technologies [IPCC 5 th AR, WG III, mitigation2014.org]: liquid biofuels, electricity from biomass, carbon capture (CCS), nuclear power, and solar photovoltaic (PV) power.…”

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confidence: 99%

Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data

et al. 2015

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Abstract.In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology experts, performed over a period of five years using a range of different methodologies, but all aiming at eliciting expert judgment on the future cost of five key energy technologies and how future costs might be influenced by public R&D investments. To enable researchers and policy makers to use the wealth of collective knowledge obtained through these expert elicitations we develop and present a set of assumptions to harmonize them. We also aggregate expert estimates within each study and across studies to facilitate the comparison. The analysis showed that, as expected, technology costs are expected to go down by 2030 with increasing levels of R&D investments, but that there is not a high level of agreement between individual experts or between studies regarding the technology areas that would benefit the most from R&D investments. This indicates that further study of prospective cost data may be useful to further inform R&D investments. We also found that the contributions of additional studies to the variance of costs in one technology area differed by technology area, suggesting that (barring new information about the downsides of particular forms of elicitations) there may be value in not only including a diverse and relatively large group of experts, but also in using different methods to collect estimates.

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Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

Cited by 99 publications

References 22 publications

The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

The Power of Biomass: Experts Disclose the Potential for Success of Bioenergy Technologies

Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data

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