The coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of cement paste is an essential parameter for estimating cracks of cementbased structures, including under normal operating conditions. The CTE of low-heat Portland cement pastes dried for a long term at various relative humidities were measured by applying trapezoidal temperature history. The measured CTE was a convex function when displayed versus relative humidity and was highest at the relative humidity of 58%. At the relative humidity of 11%, the CTE was similar to the one of the fully dried sample. Based on a drying shrinkage model in the literature that classifies pore water as free liquid water and adsorbed water, we computed pore pressure change and corresponding strain, from which the CTEs were estimated. The microstructural rearrangements of cement paste due to long-term drying were taken into account by obtaining pore size distributions from water vapor sorption isotherm. The CTEs predicted with the model agree well with the measured ones.