Advances in Energy Forecasting Models Based on Engineering Economics

Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.29.062403.102042

Cited by 104 publications

(64 citation statements)

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“…This resulted in a different type of investigation that led to the realization that economic growth and high quality of life could be maintained even with lesser energy supplies. Worrel et al (2004) argue that although price clearly matters and significantly influences energy use decisions, it is not all that matters. The wider non-price policies and industry interactions require (Worrel et al (2004)):…”

Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Worrel et al (2004) argue that although price clearly matters and significantly influences energy use decisions, it is not all that matters. The wider non-price policies and industry interactions require (Worrel et al (2004)):…”

Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method involves the following general steps [UN (1991) and IAEA (2006) (Worrel et al, 2004). Generally end-use models either follow a simulation approach or an optimization goal, while the technology representation can be either explicit (where specific technologies are considered) or stylistic.…”

Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hybrid models can also include them if they use geographically differentiated information. analyze policy impacts (Worrel et al 2004). The econometric approach, even at the aggregate level, suffers due to lack of enough time series data.…”

Section: Comparison Of Selected Energy Demand Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of surveys of energy demand models have appeared previously, including, among others, those by Hartman (1979), Bohi (1981), Bohi and Zimmerman (1984), Craig et al (2002), Worrel et al (2004), Wirl and Szirucsek (1990). These studies, however, focus mainly on developed countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Bhattacharyya¹,

Timilsina²

2009

Policy Research Working Papers

127

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This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy This paper-a product of the Environment and Energy Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the department to study climate change and clean energy issues. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at gtimilsina@worldbank.org.commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. Energy Demand Models for Acronyms and Definitions DefinitionsA few terms appear recurrently in this report: tool, model, method, methodology, approach and framework. We give the dictionary meaning of these terms and indicate how we have used them in this paper.A "tool" is "the means whereby some act is accomplished" or "an implement used in the practice of a vocation". In this paper, we use the term to imply an implement or a kit that is used in analyzing energy demand or forecasting demand or in analyzing the energy system in its part or whole.A "model" is defined as "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we use models to imply a simplified representation of a complex problem or process, often in mathematical terms, that helps us in conceptualizing and analyzing the problem. In this sense, a model can be a tool or can employ a number of tools in a systematic way.A "framework" is defined as "a structure supporting or containing something" or "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we have used this term interchangeably with a model.A "method" is defined as "a way of doing something, especially a systematic way; implies an orderly logical arrangement (usually in steps)". We have used the term to mean a logical, systematic approach for accomplishing a task.An "approach" is defined as the "ideas or actions intended to deal with a problem or situatio...

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Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: End-use Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Comparison Of Selected Energy Demand Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Bhattacharyya¹,

Timilsina²

2009

Policy Research Working Papers

127

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Trends of energy demand in the Middle East: A sectoral level analysis

Bayomi

Fernández

2017

Int J Energy Res

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Summary The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made.

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Understanding and Analysing Energy Demand

Bhattacharyya

2011

Energy Economics

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Advances in Energy Forecasting Models Based on Engineering Economics

Cited by 104 publications

References 64 publications

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Trends of energy demand in the Middle East: A sectoral level analysis

Understanding and Analysing Energy Demand

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