Advancing Coastal Flood Risk Prediction Utilizing a GeoAI Approach by Considering Mangroves as an Eco-DRR Strategy

Abstract

Traditional coastal flood risk prediction often overlooks critical geographic features, underscoring the need for accurate risk prediction in coastal cities to ensure resilience. This study enhances the prediction of coastal flood occurrence by utilizing the Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) approach. This approach employed models—random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), and artificial neural networks (ANN)—and compared them to the IPCC risk framework. This study used El Salvador as a demonstration case. The models incorporated seven input variables: extreme sea level, coastline proximity, elevation, slope, mangrove distance, population, and settlement type. With a recall score of 0.67 and precision of 0.86, the RF model outperformed the other models and the IPCC approach, which could avoid imbalanced datasets and standard scaler issues. The RF model improved the reliability of flood risk assessments by reducing false negatives. Based on the RF model output, scenario analysis predicted a significant increase in flood occurrences by 2100, mainly under RCP8.5 with SSP5. The study also highlights that the continuous mangrove along the coastline will reduce coastal flood occurrences. The GeoAI approach results suggest its potential for coastal flood risk management, emphasizing the need to integrate natural defenses, such as mangroves, for coastal resilience.