Advancing ensemble learning techniques for residential building electricity consumption forecasting: Insight from explainable artificial intelligence

Abstract

Accurate electricity consumption forecasting in residential buildings has a direct impact on energy efficiency and cost management, making it a critical component of sustainable energy practices. Decision tree-based ensemble learning techniques are particularly effective for this task due to their ability to process complex datasets with high accuracy. Furthermore, incorporating explainable artificial intelligence into these predictions provides clarity and interpretability, allowing energy managers and homeowners to make informed decisions that optimize usage and reduce costs. This study comparatively analyzes decision tree–ensemble learning techniques augmented with explainable artificial intelligence for transparency and interpretability in residential building energy consumption forecasting. This approach employs the University Residential Complex and Appliances Energy Prediction datasets, data preprocessing, and decision-tree bagging and boosting methods. The superior model is evaluated using the Shapley additive explanations method within the explainable artificial intelligence framework, explaining the influence of input variables and decision-making processes. The analysis reveals the significant influence of the temperature-humidity index and wind chill temperature on short-term load forecasting, transcending traditional parameters, such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed. The complete study and source code have been made available on our GitHub repository at https://github.com/sodayeong for the purpose of enhancing precision and interpretability in energy system management, thereby promoting transparency and enabling replication.