Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight

Mietzner, Dana; Reger, Guido

doi:10.1504/ijtip.2005.006516

Cited by 263 publications

(176 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Another tool that might make possible changes more concrete is the creation of scenarios (Chan et al, 2012). Scenario planning supports decision-making with regard to uncertainty and integrates new strategies in order to justify possible consequences (Mietzner and Reger, 2005;Bishop et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

2014

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Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

2014

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“…4. Ability to envision multiple scenarios and prioritize most probable outcomes (MEA [Millennium Ecosystem Assessment] 2005, Mietzner and Reger 2005, Carpenter et al 2006, Kofinas 2009) Scenarios thinking involves a process of creating multiple stories about possible futures based on a range of decisions in complex settings (Mietzner and Reger 2005). Metacognition has been demonstrated as a key skill in problem solving, which requires following multiple reflexive lines of thinking, or thought scenarios, toward a solution and refining thinking into a "best fit" solution (Rickey andStacy 2000, Schraw et al 2006).…”

Section: Boxmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include the ability to evaluate scientific information and concepts and apply it to novel situations (Carpenter 2002, Folke et al 2003, Fazey et al 2007, the ability to think critically to solve complex problems , Fazey 2010, the ability to envision multiple scenarios and prioritize most probable outcomes (MEA 2005, Mietzner and Reger 2005, Carpenter et al 2006, Kofinas 2009), the ability to view environmental problems within a social-ecological system context (e.g., consider both social and ecological aspects of a problem and how they interact; Sterling 2003, Meadows 2008, Jordan et al 2009, Kofinas 2009, Krasny 2009, Crawford and Jordan 2013, the ability to think about future events or future desired ecological states and anticipate the consequences of present actions (Ascher 2009, Tschakert and Dietrich 2010, Tidball and Krasny 2011, and the ability to make bold decisions in the face of uncertainty (MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) 2005, Fazey et al 2007). Metacognition, or the knowledge of and ability to regulate one's own thinking, has been suggested as an important approach to learning that could help improve this suite of resilience thinking skills (Fazey et al 2005, Spellman 2015.…”

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confidence: 99%

Metacognitive learning in the ecology classroom: A tool for preparing problem solvers in a time of rapid change?

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Building communities that are resilient and adaptive to climate change requires the development of education strategies that train community members in higher order thinking skills that can be used to solve complex environmental problems. This study provides an empirical test of hypotheses within social-ecological systems resilience theory that have suggested metacognitive learning strategies could increase resilience thinking skills such as scenarios thinking, systems thinking, and the ability to interpret and apply ecological data in complex problem solving. During a 6-week long ecology unit with 108 seventh-grade students, we taught half the students using standard inquiry teaching methods and the other half using the same method, with the addition of a daily metacognitive learning intervention. We investigated the short-term (after six weeks of intervention) and long-term (1 yr after the intervention ended) effects of the intervention on student's metacognitive ability and resilience thinking skills. Over the long term, we found a modest increase in the metacognitive ability of students who received the daily metacognitive journaling exercise. Interview data suggest that the structured metacognitive practice did most to improve the resilience thinking level of students who had low resilience thinking ability prior to the intervention period. However, the interaction between pre-treatment ability level and the treatment group was not detected in the written assessment data. These data suggest that the metacognitive learning intervention we used can benefit metacognitive ability over the long term, but has limited transferability to resilience thinking skills for most students. We suggest additional instructional practices for implementing metacognitive teaching approaches that could enhance the generalizability of their benefits across resilience thinking skills and student's ability levels.

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“…Several other relevant possibilities are undermined due to a dominance of value-laden notions or assumptions of likelihood, both of which defeat the underlying philosophy of scenarios. Even so, one main disadvantage of SP is the length of time taken to develop scenarios (Mietzner and Reger, 2005). One way to address the time-consuming nature of developing the narrative and difficulty in selecting two uncertainties is to apply a Morphological Analysis (MA) approach.…”

Section: Mcda and Sp For The Evaluation Of Strategic Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Ram

Montibeller

Morton

2011

Journal of the Operational Research Society

109

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Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.

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Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight

Cited by 263 publications

References 19 publications

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Metacognitive learning in the ecology classroom: A tool for preparing problem solvers in a time of rapid change?

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

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