Objective: The marketing of infant/child milk-based formulas (MF) contributes to suboptimal breast-feeding and adversely affects child and maternal health outcomes globally. However, little is known about recent changes in MF markets. The present study describes contemporary trends and patterns of MF sales at the global, regional and country levels. Design: Descriptive statistics of trends and patterns in MF sales volume per infant/ child for the years 2008-2013 and projections to 2018, using industry-sourced data. Setting: Eighty countries categorized by country income bracket, for developing countries by region, and in countries with the largest infant/child populations. Subjects: MF categories included total (for ages 0-36 months), infant (0-6 months), follow-up (7-12 months), toddler (13-36 months) and special (0-6 months). Results: In 2008-2013 world total MF sales grew by 40·8 % from 5·5 to 7·8 kg per infant/child/year, a figure predicted to increase to 10·8 kg by 2018. Growth was most rapid in East Asia particularly in China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam and was led by the infant and follow-up formula categories. Sales volume per infant/ child was positively associated with country income level although with wide variability between countries. Conclusions: A global infant and young child feeding (IYCF) transition towards diets higher in MF is underway and is expected to continue apace. The observed increase in MF sales raises serious concern for global child and maternal health, particularly in East Asia, and calls into question the efficacy of current regulatory regimes designed to protect and promote optimal IYCF. The observed changes have not been captured by existing IYCF monitoring systems.
Keywords
Infant and young child feedingNutrition transition Formula Breast-milk substitutes Breast-feeding is important for infant and young child health and development, and for maternal health, in both developed-and developing-country settings (1)(2)(3) . It is ranked as the single most effective intervention for the prevention of deaths in children under 5 years of age (4) . To achieve optimal growth, development and health the WHO recommends that infants should be exclusively breast-fed for the first 6 months of life and thereafter receive nutritionally adequate and safe complementary foods while continuing breast-feeding for up to 2 years of age or beyond (5,6) . Although significant progress has been made in some countries, the global exclusive breast-feeding rate improved only marginally from 33 % in 1995 to 37 % in 2014 (7) . Every year an estimated 823 000 deaths, or 13·8 % of total deaths, in children under 2 years of age would be prevented if breast-feeding were scaled up to a near-universal level in high-mortality low-and middleincome countries. For mothers, a universal level of breastfeeding in all countries would prevent an estimated 20 000 deaths from breast cancer annually (8) . Suboptimal infant and young child feeding (IYCF) also incurs higher health system expenditures through increas...