Popocatépetl volcano produced 625 ash emissions to heights greater than1 km between 1994 and 2008. During this time, ash fall affected mostly populations within a 60 km radius around the volcano, a zone which includes 4.5 million people. We assess the effects of prolonged ash fall on human health in these areas between 1994 and 2008. To do this, we considered 94,000 non-infectious respiratory disease (NIRD) records from five health databases. This included the 98 municipalities where ash fall was frequent, plus two municipalities outside of the ash fall area which served as a control group. NIRD rates (cases/1 k inhabitants) from 1992, 2 years before the beginning of the eruptive period, tol 2008 were compared with mapped ash distributions during the same period. Wind dispersed 29% of these ash emissions to the northeast, 20% to the east, 17% to the southwest, 13% to the northwest, 9% to the southeast, and12% in other directions, producing more ash fall in the northeast and east sectors and higher NIRD rates. Results, tested with an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and covariance statistical analyses, show that changes in NIRD rates correlate with ash dispersion direction and the amount of fine ash deposited. During eruptive crises in 1994-2003 and 2005, NIRD rates increased from < 1 to > 2.6, reaching levels up to > 3 in municipalities where ash was sampled. In 2004In and 2006 when ash plume frequency and ash concentration decreased (e.g., only two minor ash emissions in 2004), the NIRD rates remained unchanged. This was a result of the chronic effect on health of the preceding ash fall. We found that health impacts are principally related to the amount of ash, as well as the percentage of fine particles which in turn is also a function of the prolonged nature of the eruption. The fine ash from Popocatépetl is composed of up to 19.2% of particles smaller than 10 μm and up to 5.7% smaller than 2.5 μm and contains plagioclase crystals, lithic particles, glass, pyroxene crystals, cristobalite, and minor amounts of titanomagnetite and sublimates.
Keywords Volcanic ash • Respiratory health • Health impact
ResumenEl volcán Popocatépetl produjo 625 emisiones de cenizas de más de un 1 km entre 1994 y 2008. Durante este tiempo, la caída de cenizas afectó principalmente a las poblaciones dentro de un radio de 60 km alrededor del volcán, una zona que incluye a 4.5 millones de personas. En este artículo evaluamos los efectos de la caída prolongada de cenizas en la salud humana en estas áreas, en el periodo comprendido de 1994 al 2008. Para ello, consideramos 94,000 registros de enfermedades respiratorias no infecciosas (NIRD) de cinco bases de datos de salud. Esto incluyó los 98 municipios donde la caída de cenizas es frecuente, más dos municipios fuera del área de caída de cenizas que sirvieron como grupo de control. Se compararon las tasas de NIRD (casos/1k habitantes) con las distribuciones de cenizas mapeadas, desde 1992, dos años antes del inicio del período eruptivo, hasta 2008. El viento dispersó el 29% de estas emisio...