Africa's Power Infrastructure

Eberhard, Anton; Rosnes, Orvika; Shkaratan, Maria; Vennemo, Haakon

doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8455-8

Cited by 102 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries 24 . To get a sense of the scale, Eberhard et al (2011) note that, "Installed capacity [in Africa] will need to grow by more than 10 percent annually just to meet Africa's suppressed demand 25 , keep pace with projected economic growth, and provide additional capacity to support efforts to expand electrification…Most new capacity would be used to meet non-residential demands from the commercial and industrial sectors." Figure 1 shows the total electricity generation capacity installed per million persons (MW/mln) in various regions.…”

Section: Historical Energy Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 4 shows, as an example, the forecast to 2038 (in MW) for peak demand in Kenya 32 , including showing sharp growth in the "High Case" from 1 GW to over 18 GW to 2038. • Eberhard et al (2011) develop several scenarios to 2015 for Africa. They considered three types of demand: market, suppressed and social to help create three scenarios (constant access, regional target and national targets).…”

Section: Existing Electricity Demand Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model uses LDCs to determine the least-cost mix of new baseload and peaking capacity to meet electricity demand growth. Based on regional projections for new capacity (e.g., hydro, gas or coal) in Eberhard et al (2011) we defined a baseload technology for each region using cost and performance characteristics from EIA (2011).…”

Section: Annex 2: Regional Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(As an ilustration of this, Eberhard et al (2011) dedicate an entire chapter on reforming State-owned enterprises.) Over the last 20 years many developing countries have adopted far-reaching policies that encourage liberalization and privatization, often at the behest of major international funders and development organizations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bazilian

Nussbaumer

Rogner³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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SummaryIn order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access -even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. Abstract: In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the subSaharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access -even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. Keywords

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Section: Historical Energy Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Existing Electricity Demand Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Annex 2: Regional Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Bazilian

Nussbaumer

Rogner³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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“…(2007) estimated, based on UNCTAD and OECD data, the investment in electricity and gas distribution reaching USD 216 billion in 2000. Eberhard et al (2011) also provide very useful analysis on investment in 24 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 33 . Figure 2 shows the relative evolution in energy-related GFCF in selected 34 developing countries.…”

Section: Gross Fixed Capital Formationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Flows

et al. 2011

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SummaryEnergy poverty is widely recognized as a major obstacle to economic and social development and poverty alleviation. To help inform the design of appropriate and effective policies to reduce energy poverty, we present a brief analysis of the current macro financial flows in the electricity and gas distribution sectors in developing countries. We build on the methodology used to quantify the flows of investment in the climate change area. This methodology relies on national gross fixed capital formation, overseas development assistance, and foreign direct investment. These high-level and aggregated investment figures provide a sense of scale to policy-makers, but are only a small part of the information required to design financial vehicles. In addition, these figures tend to mask numerous variations between sectors and countries, as well as trends and other temporal fluctuations. Nonetheless, for the poorest countries, one can conclude that the current flows are considerably short (at least five times) of what will be required to provide a basic level of access to clean, modern energy services to the "energy poor". Keywords: Energy Access, Energy Finance, Financial flows JEL Classification: Q4 Address for correspondence:Morgan Bazilian United Nations Industrial Development Organization Wagramerstr 5 P.O. Box 300 A-1400 Vienna Austria E-mail. m.bazilian@unido.org DisclaimerThis document represents work in progress and is intended to generate comment and discussion. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. This document has been produced without formal United Nations editing. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or its economic system or degree of development. Designations such as "developed", "industrialized" and "developing" are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. Abstract:Energy poverty is widely recognized as a major obstacle to economic and social development and poverty alleviation. To help inform the design of appropriate and effective policies to reduce energy poverty, we present a brief analysis of the current macro financial flows in the electricity and gas distribution sectors in developing countries. We build on the methodology used to quantify the flows of investment in the climate change area. This methodology relies on national gross fixed capital formation, overseas development assistance, and foreign direct investment. These high-level and aggregated investment figures provide a sense of scale to policy-makers, but are onl...

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Electricity Autonomy and Power Grids in Africa: from Rural Experiments to Urban Hybridizations

Jaglin¹

2019

Local Energy Autonomy

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Africa's Power Infrastructure

Cited by 102 publications

References 7 publications

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Flows

Electricity Autonomy and Power Grids in Africa: from Rural Experiments to Urban Hybridizations

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