Background
African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly contagious pathogen affecting domestic and wild pigs, with soft ticks (Ornithodoros spp.) acting as significant vectors. Understanding the distribution of Ornithodoros ticks in relation to environmental variables is crucial for anticipating ASFV transmission risk areas.
Methods
This study employed species distribution modeling (SDM) using MaxEnt and Random Forest algorithms to predict the suitable habitat of Ornithodoros coriaceus, O. hermsi, and O. parkeri in California under current and future climate scenarios (2061–2080). The SDMs incorporated climate, edaphic, topographic, and habitat variables, with models evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation using the Area Under the Curve (AUC).
Results
Key predictors included Isothermality (BIO3), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO15), and soil type (Entisols). The present habitat suitability for Ornithodoros spp. covered approximately 117,208 km², projected to increase by 6,869.5 km² under future conditions. The spatial co-occurrence analysis highlighted an overlap of approximately 37,242.75 km² between Ornithodoros spp. habitats and feral/domestic pig distributions, expanding to 39,213 km² under future scenarios.
Conclusions
Identifying high-risk areas for ASFV transmission through SDMs provides valuable insights for targeted surveillance and biosecurity measures. The study emphasizes the need for integrated vector-host management and proactive strategies to mitigate ASFV risk in California.