African swine fever: Why the situation in Germany is not comparable to that in the Czech Republic or Belgium

Abstract

After the first occurrence of African swine fever (ASF) in Germany in September 2020, control measures were implemented that resembled those taken in the Czech Republic and Belgium, the only two countries that succeeded in eliminating ASF from their territory so far in the current epidemic. In the present study, the epidemiological course of ASF in the first 6 months since introduction in these three countries is compared. Within 6 months, Germany experienced more cases than the Czech Republic and Belgium. The affected area in Germany, measured using minimal convex polygons, is much larger than the respective areas in the Czech Republic and in Belgium. All cases in the Czech Republic and in Belgium clustered in one single defined area, suggesting point‐source introductions, whereas in Germany four distinct spatial clusters were observed, which indicates that multiple incursions had occurred along the border with Poland. While the overall course of the disease was comparable, when individual clusters were considered, the summarized data showed clear differences between the situation in Germany compared to that in the Czech Republic and Belgium. Germany experienced several independent introductions, caused by continuous infection pressure along the border to Poland, while the infection was only introduced on a single occasion each into the Czech Republic and Belgium. These differences may require appropriate adaptation of control measures, in particular concerning fencing along the border.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe—A Review

“…Ten months later, in September 2020, the neighboring area across the border in Germany recorded the first ASF case in wild boar [6]. Both the vicinity of cases to the German-Polish border and their clustering suggest several independent incursions into Germany [94]. Together with sequence data of the complete viral genome obtained for several ASFV strains, this illustrates that there exists a transboundary epidemic affecting western Poland and Germany.…”

“…These control measures were implemented at different intensities for at least 10 or 14 months, respectively, before these countries submitted their self-declaration of freedom of ASF to the OIE. Fencing may also be applied to prevent the migration of potentially infected wild boar across national borders [94].…”

The Diffusion Metrics of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar

“…We use the official case data for Germany covering all cases from 10th September 2020 to 9th July 2021 from the national animal disease database (Tierseuchennachrichtensystem) [35]. Being in the early phase of the outbreaks, the data can be separated into clusters [13], which are shown in Figure 1. In this paper, we will analyze one representative cluster in detail (Cluster 1), for reasons of clarity.…”

“…Since then, and despite ongoing control efforts as well as intensive study of disease dynamics, ASF has been moving predominantly in western direction, affecting many more EU countries [11]. Among them, in 2020, ASF has also reached Germany [12], where the disease continues to spread in initially distinct spatial clusters [13].…”

African Swine Fever Survey in a European Context

“…Excluding Sardinia, from 2014 up to December 2020, there have been 6037 ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs in the EU and 39,970 ASF notifications in wild boar across 12 EU countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) [3]. Only Belgium and the Czech Republic, both with only wild boar affected, have regained an ASF-free status [4,5].…”