After the Boomâ€“Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Gruss, Bertrand

doi:10.5089/9781498363518.001

Cited by 74 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The effect is stronger for countries with lower levels of financial development, more pro-cyclical fiscal policies and less flexible exchange rates. Gruss (2014) confirmed that for most commodity exporting countries in Latin America, the recent commodity price boom had a significant positive effect on GDP growth.…”

Section: The Push and Pull Factor Frameworksupporting

confidence: 63%

Measuring Tailwind in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina

Ocampo

2016

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. This paper introduces an index that seeks to objectively measure the intensity of favorable external conditions that can lead to improved macroeconomic performance in Argentina. The country is a net exporter of commodities and a net importer of capital, therefore it benefits from rising prices in international commodity markets and the availability of low cost long-term capital. The index is partly based on the framework of "push" and "pull" factors developed in the early 1990s to explain international capital flows into emerging markets economies and my own experience as an international investment banker during the nineties. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may

show abstract

Section: The Push and Pull Factor Frameworksupporting

confidence: 63%

Measuring Tailwind in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina

Ocampo

2016

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An extensive literature has documented the predominant role of external factors in lifting EM growth during the 2000s until the global financial crisis (Fayad and Perrelli 2014;IMF 2014a). The slowdown since 2010 has been attributed to sliding commodity prices (Gruss 2014); financial system strains (Aslund 2013); and weaker trading partner demand (Cubeddu et al 2014;Fayad and Perrelli 2014;IMF 2014a). Alternatively, common factors could reflect a coincidence of domestic developments, including policy tightening (Fayad and Perrelli 2014), political uncertainty, demographic trends, and slowing productivity growth (Dabla-Norris et al 2013).…”

Section: Sources Of the Slowdownmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?

Didier¹,

Köse

Ohnsorge

et al. 2016

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: Emerging markets (EM) face their fifth consecutive year of slowing growth and a possibly longer period of sluggish performance than previously thought. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the nature of and the appropriate policy responses to the growth slowdown in EM. It reports three main results. First, the slowdown is synchronous and protracted, affecting a sizable number of EM, especially large ones. Second, it has been driven by both external factors, including weak world trade, low commodity prices, and tightening financial conditions; and domestic factors, including slowdown in productivity growth, bouts of policy uncertainty, and an erosion of policy buffers. Both structural and cyclical factors have contributed to the slowdown. Third, the room for accommodative cyclical fiscal and monetary policies is limited in many EM, lending urgency to putting in place structural reforms to upgrade governance structures, improve business environments, raise human and physical capital, and manage demographic pressures. JEL Classification Numbers: E60, F6, F43, O4, O43. Terms of use: Documents in

show abstract

“…Camacho and Perez-Quiros (2014) related output growth to commodity price shocks in seven LAC countries and found that commodity price shocks were pro-cyclical. Gruss (2014) looked at the effect of the commodity boom on LAC countries and concluded there was a positive relationship between the growth in commodity prices and output growth in these countries; however, there was not a relationship between the level of prices and output growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Commodity prices are characterized by boom and bust cycles. In this article, the impact of the commodity boom of the 2000s on Latin American and Caribbean economies is studied by analyzing four categories of commodity exports (agricultural raw materials, fuel, food, ore and minerals) as well as manufactured exports. Latin American and Caribbean economies had higher growth during the 2000s than in the period before the commodities boom. This study examines whether the higher growth was explained by the commodity boom, and if so, which of the different export commodities accounted for this higher growth. The findings should be relevant to understanding the effects on economic growth of a possible bust in commodity prices. The results show that ore and mineral exports, fuel exports and food exports generally had a negative effect on GDP per capita growth but ore and mineral exports had a positive effect on LAC countries during the boom. During the boom period, agricultural exports had negative effects, especially for LAC countries. Fuel exports had a positive effect on LAC and non-LAC countries during the boom. Manufacturing exports in general had a positive effect on economic growth, but in the boom period this effect almost disappeared for the LAC countries.

show abstract

After the Boomâ€“Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cited by 74 publications

References 18 publications

Measuring Tailwind in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina

Measuring Tailwind in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina

Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?

Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About