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INTRODUCTION Considerable interest has attached to the question of what impact various pieces of labour legislation introduced in 1965 and 1966 had on the demand and supply of labour in UK manufacturing. It has been argued that this legislation increased the quasi-fixed costs of labour and decreased the cost of off-the-job search, Bowers et al. (1970, 1972). As a result both the demand and supply of labour was reduced, the latter by raising voluntary quits.A major obstacle to testing these arguments is the absence of time series data in the UK on quits and lay-offs. Despite this lack of data, a three-equation econometric model of labour turnover for UK manufacturing industries is constructed. The model explains engagements, disengagements and quits. The main conclusions are that this legislation affected the quit rate and hence the supply of labour but did not have much impact on the demand for labour.
A number of papers exist both on the theory of labour turnover, Mortensen (1970), Parsons (1973), Burdett (1976), Nickell (1976) and Pissarides (1976) (see also Wickens (1974) for a discussion of employment dynamics), and on econometric models of labour turnover for the US, Hammermesh (1969), Hall (1972), Pencavel (1972) and Parsons (1973).But very little empirical work exists for the UK, presumably in part because of the lack of data on quits. Bowers et al. (1970, 1972) have studied for the UK the relationship between labour turnover and output but their model is poorly specified and estimated.A number of interesting methodological issues arise in this paper. First, there is the problem of building models even where there is no data on several critical variables. Second, the econometric model that is estimated is an incomplete model, having more endogenous variables than equations. Cross-equation restrictions are a further complication. The estimator used was non-linear subsystem LIML, which is asymptotically efficient given the information available.The paper is set out as follows. The structural equations for labour turnover are derived in Section 2 and for the quit rate in Section 3. In Section 4 we consider the possible influence of the labour legislation upon the structural equations. The problem of estimating the model and the results are discussed in Section 5.