Aftermath of climate change on Bangladesh economy: an analysis of the dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Hossain, Syed Shoyeb; Delin, Huang; Ma, Mingchao

doi:10.2166/wcc.2022.412

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Another big challenge in Bangladesh's agriculture is rising temperatures. A study conducted by Hossain et al (2020), found that the overall temperature tends to increase by 1°C, 1.6°C, 2°C and 2.4°C in the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100, respectively. Precipitation is also projected to increase in 2030, 2050 and 2070.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country to cyclones and the sixth most vulnerable country to floods, according to the United Nations Development Program. This country is primarily an agricultural country, with agricultural workers accounting for the majority of the workforce (Hossain et al , 2020). Due to global climate change, Bangladesh agriculture is extremely susceptible.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Hossain

Cui

Delin

et al. 2023

IJCCSM

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Purpose Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios. Design/methodology/approach Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline. Findings The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Practical implications As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government. Originality/value The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Hossain

Cui

Delin

et al. 2023

IJCCSM

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Bangladesh has already experienced a slow rise in temperature and precipitation, with more unpredictable and variable weather patterns than in the past. Crop productivity in Bangladesh is declining due to climate change, according to earlier research (Hossain et al, 2023;Hossain et al, 2022;Rahman et al, 2018;Karim et al, 1996Karim et al, , 2012Basak et al, 2010. Sarker et al, 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible impacts on crop production under climate change in Bangladesh: An analysis of the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model

ShoyebHossain

2023

ERSR

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This paper ffrst analyzes the changing pattern of temperature and precipitation and then constructs a Denitriffcation-Decomposition (DNDC) model to better understand the climate change impact on crop yields in Bangladesh. In the DNDC model, historical daily precipitation and temperature data used for baseline scenario and projected data have been taken from general circulation model (GCM). Different general circulation models (GCM) have been employed to analyze and estimate future temperatures and precipitations. The result of the general circulation model (GCM) study ffnds that the overall temperature in Bangladesh tends to increase by 1.5 0C and 2.8 0 C in the years 2030 and 2050. Precipitation patterns are also projected to increase in 2030 and 2050. The result from the Denitriffcation-Decomposition (DNDC) model ffnds that overall rice, corn, winter wheat, potato, vegetable, and pulses yields decrease both in 2030 and 2050, and decrease more rapidly in 2050. In the year 2050, the output of rice, potatoes, and pulses falls by -33%, -35%, and -54%, respectively, while the production of corn and wheat falls by -22% collectively. Since rice is the main food consumed in Bangladesh, a decline in rice output will pose a serious threat to the country's ability to feed itself.

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Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka

Abeysekara

Siriwardana

Meng

2023

Economic Analysis and Policy

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Aftermath of climate change on Bangladesh economy: an analysis of the dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Plausible impacts on crop production under climate change in Bangladesh: An analysis of the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model

Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka

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