Age and vote choice: Is there a conservative shift among older voters?

Geys, Benny; Heggedal, Tom‐Reiel; Sørensen, Rune J.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102485

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…For age effects, the theoretical specification draws from the fact that developmental psychologists typically distinguish four life phases with distinct levels of psychological development and life priorities (e.g., Arnett, 2000;Srivastava et al, 2003): adolescence (under age 22), early adulthood (22-29), middle adulthood (30-64), and late adulthood (age 65 and over). Many studies have corroborated that life-cycle effects on political orientations generally follow these four life phases with strong levels of political learning and attitude change during adolescence and early adulthood, relative stability during middle adulthood, and then some shifts (sometimes in the opposite direction) during late adulthood (e.g., Converse, 1969;Dassonneville, 2016;Hobbs, 2019;Geys et al, 2022). This knowledge about what life-cycle differences typically look like can be leveraged to identify the APC-models.…”

Section: Strategy Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Psychologically, aging has been related to personality changes that often go together with conservatism such as an increasing conscientiousness and a decreasing openness to new experiences (Cornelis et al, 2009;Gerber et al, 2010;Specht, 2017). Corroborating this line of thought, some studies have indeed pointed out that aging makes people more likely to vote for the Conservative party in Britain (Tilley and Evans, 2014), as well as for conservative and Christian democratic parties in Germany and Norway (Geys et al, 2022;Steiner, 2022).…”

Section: Life-cycle Differences In Vote Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

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Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

Rekker

2024

Front. Polit. Sci.

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People’s generation may have become one of the core predictors of their vote choice. This study examines this hypothesis across 21 Western established democracies between 1948 and 2021. An age-period-cohort analysis on 258 national election surveys (N = 462.084) reveals that the most recent generations are much less likely to vote for the major right-wing party in two-party systems. In multi-party systems, the gradual decline of Christian democratic parties has been largely driven by the generational replacement of pre-WW2 cohorts. Social democratic and conservative parties may face a challenge in future decades because their support is particularly low among the most recent generations whereas liberal, socialist, and particularly green parties stand to gain from generational replacement. Far-right parties have been least popular among voters who came of age during the 1930s and 1940s. A small life-cycle effect points out that people over the age of 65 vote slightly more conservative.

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Section: Strategy Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Life-cycle Differences In Vote Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

Rekker

2024

Front. Polit. Sci.

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“…The Correlates of War database brings together data on intra-and interstate conflicts dating back to 1816 (Sarkees & Wayman, 2010; https://correlatesofwar.org). Most countries also regularly field National Election Studies containing detailed questions about inhabitants' political behaviors and attitudes-sometimes containing overlapping panels for subsets of individual respondents in consecutive survey waves (Geys et al, 2021(Geys et al, , 2022.…”

Section: From Theory To Practice: Resources For Longitudinal Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

It's about time! Temporal dynamics and longitudinal research designs in public administration

Murdoch,

MacCarthaigh,

Geys

2023

Public Administration Review

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Many of the fundamental research questions in public administration relate to individual‐ or organization‐level temporal dynamics, including the impact of public sector reforms, (in)stability of public policies and organizations, development of public service motivation, or the workplace socialization of public employees. However, theoretical, methodological, and empirical public administration scholarship continues to take time and temporal dynamics insufficiently seriously. This constitutes a major shortcoming within the profession and implies that we are yet to unlock the transformative potential of longitudinal research. Building on the recent development of novel research infrastructures that can support the study of temporal dynamics of—and within—public organizations, this Symposium pushes for a “longitudinal turn” in the study of public administration. We maintain that more concerted efforts to apply a temporal lens to our research endeavors are critical to theorize, empirically assess, and understand public administrations as well as the bureaucrats employed within them.

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“…Thus, they may include, as well as the questions on the participation on the election and which candidate or list they will vote or voted for (depending on being a pre-or a post-electoral survey), other questions reflecting the values of some variables related to the first ones. Studies based on these surveys are countless; just a few examples are Bélanger and Meguid (2008), Gelman et al (2010), Geys et al (2022, and Maldonado & Hernandez (2020). But the electoral surveys suffer from some problems (Barber & Holbein, 2022;Healy et al, 2016;Stocké & Stark, 2007;Wiese & Jong-A-Pin, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%