Age-dependent effects of moderate differences in environmental predictability forecasted by climate change, experimental evidence from a short-lived lizard (Zootoca vivipara)

Abstract

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. Solid evidence for effects of environmental predictability are lacking and thus, the consequences of the currently observed and forecasted climate-change induced reduction of precipitation predictability are largely unknown. Here we experimentally tested whether and how changes in the predictability of precipitation affect growth, reproduction, and survival of common lizard Zootoca vivipara. Precipitation predictability affected all three age classes. While adults were able to compensate the treatment effects, yearlings and juvenile females were not able to compensate negative effects of less predictable precipitation on growth and body condition, respectively. Differences among the age-classes’ response reflect differences (among age-classes) in the sensitivity to environmental predictability. Moreover, effects of environmental predictability depended on mean environmental conditions. This indicates that integrating differences in environmental sensitivity, and changes in averages and the predictability of climatic variables will be key to understand whether species are able to cope with the current climatic change.

Climatic niche differences among Zootoca vivipara clades with different parity modes: implications for the evolution and maintenance of viviparity

“…Riskier habitats, e.g. climates with higher climatic variability, lead to prolonged gestation [ 10 , 11 , 35 ] and more oxidative damage in mothers [ 36 ], and small temperature differences can extend embryonic development by many weeks [ 11 ]. Prolonged gestation also increases the female’s exposure to predation [e.g, 30, 31] and viviparous females will therefore favour their own fitness over that of their offspring.…”

“…The “cold climate hypothesis” (CCH [ 6 ]) advocates that viviparity is an adaptation to cold environments because it allows mothers to raise embryonic temperature above the environmental temperature, what is especially advantageous if environmental temperatures are not high enough for the development and survival of embryos. The “maternal manipulation hypothesis” (MMH) advocates that the main advantage of viviparity resides on its positive effect on offspring viability and development in less favourable environmental conditions [ 7 , 8 ], which include low and high ambient temperatures, and other unfavourable aspects relevant to embryonic development [ 9 ], such as highly variable and unpredictable environments [ 10 , 11 ].…”

“…Because viviparous Z. vivipara females take almost twice as long to lay their eggs (about one month more, for an additional 6–8 embryonic developmental stages [ 19 , 20 ]) and because gestion of viviparous Z. vivipara females is not facultative [ 19 ], we predicted that viviparous Z. vivipara inhabit locations with lower climatic variability (Table 1 ; Fig. 1 - prediction SMP 1 ), in which embryonic development is faster and egg laying is earlier [ 10 , 11 ]. The shorter gravidity period reduces the time during which the developing eggs negatively affect a female’s locomotion, which reduces a female’s predation risk (e.g, [ 30 , 31 ]).…”

Global changes explain the long-term demographic trend of the Eurasian common lizard (Squamata: Lacertidae)

“…But they may not necessarily affect a species’ demographic trend, because local phenomena (e.g., changes in regional or local climatic conditions, genetic drift and differences in sexual selection; Uyeda et al 2009 ; Nosil 2012 ) may only affect a few local populations (e.g., Weiss and Ferrand 2007 ; Horreo et al 2014 ). Moreover, longer-term changes and changes of big magnitude may affect a species’ genetic diversity, speciation ( Wallis et al 2016 ), and extinction rate ( Sinervo et al 2010 ), whereas short-term and local changes that rapidly feedback on the dynamics of local populations ( Geffen et al 2004 ; Romero-Diaz et al 2017 ; Horreo et al 2019 ; Masó et al 2019 ) may not necessarily affect a species’ genetic diversity and demographic trend. Many studies investigated climatic effects on trends of local populations (e.g., Letnic et al 2004 ; Chamaillé-Jammes et al 2006 ), but only few studies simultaneously investigated the relevance of global and local events for a species’ demographic trend and they only analyzed short and recent time-intervals ( Grimm-Seyfarth et al 2018 ).…”

“…The clades exhibited important differences in range expansion/contraction and occupied different glacial refugia during the Pleistocene (location of the glacial refugia: Clade A, South of the Alps; Clade B, Northern Spain and Southwestern France; Clades C and F, Pannonian/Vienna Basin; Clade D, north of the black sea; Clade E, north of Pannonian/Vienna Basin; Horreo et al 2018b ). Zootoca vivipara is a strongly hydrophile species that lives in bogs and humid meadows ( Grenot et al 1987 ; Lorenzon et al 1999 ), which is also reflected in its German (Mooreidechse), Spanish (lagartija de turbera), and French (lézard des tourbières) common species name, the literal translation of which means “Boag lizard.” Zootoca vivipara is highly sensitive to small differences in environmental parameters including climatic parameters ( Grenot et al 1987 ; Le Galliard et al 2005 ; Bestion et al 2015 ; Romero-Diaz et al 2017 ; Masó et al 2019 ). In this and many other ectothermic species, a bell-shaped relationship exists between ambient temperature and morphological, physiological, and behavioral parameters ( Avery 1985 ).…”