Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Saulsbury, James G.; Parins-Fukuchi, C. Tomomi; Wilson, Connor J.; Reitan, Trond; Liow, Lee Hsiang

doi:10.1073/pnas.2307629121

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 60 publications

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“…Based on species birth-death processes, these models have been pivotal in shaping our understanding of species diversity patterns and ecological dynamics. Despite apparent species and individual differences, they propose that species are variations of a fundamental theme [ 91 ] in which species have the same probability of dying, reproducing and dispersing, as reflected by their birth and death rates. These theories assume a universal demographic symmetry (often called neutrality, meaning neutral with respect to fitness) at the macroecological and macroevolutionary scales, resonating with the power laws observed in nature that we discuss next [ 71 , 92 ].…”

Section: Towards a General Dynamical Scaling Theory To Assess The Res...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Enquist,

Erwin,

Savage

et al. 2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology—which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems—unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the ‘ball and cup’, towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

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Section: Towards a General Dynamical Scaling Theory To Assess The Res...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Enquist,

Erwin,

Savage

et al. 2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Coevolution-induced selection for and against phenotypic novelty shapes species richness in clade co-diversification

Zeng,

Hembry

2024

Journal of Evolutionary Biology

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Coevolution can occur because of species interactions. However, it remains unclear how coevolutionary processes translate into the accumulation of species richness over macroevolutionary timescales. Assuming speciation occurs as a result of genetic differentiation across space due to dispersal limitation, we examine the effects of coevolution-induced phenotypic selection on species diversification. Based on the idea that dispersers often carry novel phenotypes, we propose and test two hypotheses. (1) Stability hypothesis: selection against phenotypic novelty enhances species diversification by strengthening dispersal limitation. (2) Novelty hypothesis: selection for phenotypic novelty impedes species diversification by weakening dispersal limitation. We simulate clade co-diversification using an individual-based model, considering scenarios where phenotypic selection is shaped by neutral dynamics, mutualistic coevolution, or antagonistic coevolution, where coevolution operates through trait matching or trait difference, and where the strength of coevolutionary selection is symmetrical or asymmetrical. Our key assumption that interactions occur between an independent party (whose individuals can establish or persist independently, e.g. hosts) and a dependent party (whose individuals cannot establish or persist independently, e.g. parasites or obligate mutualists) yields two contrasting results. The stability hypothesis is supported in the dependent clade but not in the independent clade. Conversely, the novelty hypothesis is supported in the independent clade but not in the dependent clade. These results are partially corroborated by empirical dispersal data, suggesting that these mechanisms might potentially explain the diversification of some of the most species-rich clades in the Tree of Life.

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Phylogenetically and ecologically delimited species pool affect the inference of age-dependent extinction

Gonçalves-Neto,

Quental

2024

Preprint

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According to Van Valen’s seminal work (1973), extinction occurs at a constantly stochastic rate within ecologically homogeneous groups or adaptive zones, giving long and short-lived species equal chances of extinction. Van Valen highlighted the difficulty in defining and identifying the species pool within an adaptive zone, but fundamentally viewed it through ecological factors. Most studies have used taxonomically or phylogenetically defined species pools to test the “Law of Constant Extinction.” Here, we investigate how different species pools defined by phylogeny or ecology influence the inference of age-independent extinction. Using the Canidae fossil record and a Bayesian framework, we show that species pools defined by phylogeny or ecology exhibit different age-dependent extinction dynamics. The age-dependent extinction (ADE) signal varies depending on the species pool choice, time window, and taxonomic level. Within phylogenetic species pools, we observe mixed evidence for ADE, with both positive—older species more likely to go extinct (Hesperocyoninae and Borophaginae)—and negative—younger species more likely to go extinct (Caninae)—trends. Combining subfamilies into a family-level analysis yields weak evidence for ADE or strong support for age-independent extinction, depending on the period analyzed. Within ecologically defined species pools, hypercarnivores show strong evidence for positive ADE, whereas non-hypercarnivores show signals akin to age-independent extinction. Phylogenetic pools with more hypercarnivores tended to show evidence of positive ADE, while those with fewer tended toward negative ADE. These findings emphasize that the choice of species pool significantly influences observed age-dependent extinction dynamics and that ecology impacts the regime of age-dependent extinction.

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Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Cited by 3 publications

References 60 publications

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Coevolution-induced selection for and against phenotypic novelty shapes species richness in clade co-diversification

Phylogenetically and ecologically delimited species pool affect the inference of age-dependent extinction

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