Age of entry into the labor market and career success: The case of the NFL

Abstract

The consensus across labor market research in sports and non-sports literature has shown that there is a significant interaction between age, ability, and performance. While this relationship is at the foundation of all acts of production or utility creation, little econometric work exploring the role of precocity in career success can be found in the literature. This study therefore examines the role of precocity on labor market outcomes of elite-level National Football League (NFL) players and, indirectly, assesses the on-field efficacy of the NFL's age rule. The findings indicate that precocity, as measured by the age of entry into the elite-level professional football labor pool, leads to better career success. That is, the younger a player is when he first enters the NFL labor market; the more successful he is likely to be.

Drafting for Success: How Good Are NFL Teams at Identifying Future Productivity at Offensive-Skill Positions in the Draft?

“…These studies typically show that collegiate productivity is significantly correlated with a player's draft position and draft position is correlated with career success, but there is considerably less evidence that collegiate productivity is correlated with NBA productivity. Also, similar to Kim (2015), there is some evidence that players who enter the NBA at a younger age tend to enjoy more productive careers as well. Mulholland and Jensen (2014) examine the draft position and career success of tight ends drafted in the NFL between 1999 and 2013.…”

“…However, they do find that a running back's performance in sprint drills is significantly related to his expected NFL productivity. Kim (2015) analyzes the career success of all first-round NFL draft picks between 1975 and 2005. Specifically, the author focuses on the relationship between career success and age at time of entry into the NFL.…”

“…Kim (2015) analyzes the career success of all first-round NFL draft picks between 1975 and 2005. Specifically, the author focuses on the relationship between career success and age at time of entry into the NFL.…”