Agent Based Modeling and Adaptation to Climate Change

Patt, Anthony; Siebenhüner, Bernd

doi:10.3790/vjh.74.2.310

Cited by 55 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…However, there is not yet a clear strategy for incorporating climate data into ABMs as a dynamic input. Although agent-based modeling of climate change issues is still in its infancy, it is a promising area of research, especially because ABMs are useful for spatially investigating adaptive capacity and possible system futures, including possible climate futures (Patt and Siebenhüner 2005).…”

Section: State-and-transition Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

Miller¹,

Morisette²

2014

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide datadriven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

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Section: State-and-transition Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

Miller¹,

Morisette²

2014

E&S

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“…For this reason it enables observing the emergence of system properties that were not obvious from the observation of the elements. The characteristics of agent-based simulation make it useful for representing complex adaptive systems and modelling vulnerability and adaptation (Patt and Siebenhuner 2005). Agent-based models have been increasingly combined with empirical methods, such as case studies, stylised facts, role-playing games and laboratory experiments (Janssen and Ostrom 2006).…”

Section: For Simulating Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and people to climate change: an introduction

Locatelli¹,

Herawati²,

Brockhaus³

et al. 2008

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Cover photo by Bruno Locatelli AcknowledgementsThe authors thank CIFOR and associated scientists who provided information about their use of methods and tools for vulnerability assessment: Benjamin Apraku Gyampoh, Angela Diaz, Heru Santoso, Houria Djoudi, Javier Saborio, Kologo Oumarou, Luis Molina, Pablo Imbach, Placide Hien, Raffaele Vignola, Stephen Lartey Tekpetey. DisclaimersThe views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of CIFOR.This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union (EuropeAid/ENV/2004-81719). The contents of this document can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.w o r k i n g P A P e r n o . 4 3 3 Adaptation is necessary for reducing the impacts of climate change on forests and societies. So far, forests, forest ecosystem services, and forest-dependent people or sectors have not been adequately represented in adaptation studies or policies, even though many methods and tools are available to help scientists or practitioners address questions related to vulnerability and adaptation. Methods and tools can help identify the impacts of climate change at the global, national, sectoral or local scale and bring useful results for policies on climate change. Other methods and tools aim at assessing local vulnerability for prioritising policy interventions or developing and monitoring adaptation responses.This working paper provides an overview of methods and tools suitable for assessing the vulnerability of forests, forest ecosystem services and forest-dependent people or sectors to climate change. It provides a typology of methods and tools and gives examples, taken mostly from the experience of Center for International Forest Research (CIFOR) and Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE) in the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) project in Central America, West Africa and Asia. The scope of the analysis is first described (section 2). Then generic methods and tools are presented (section 3), followed by methods and tools for the vulnerability of ecosystems (section 4), people (section 5), and integrated socio-ecological systems (section 6). KeywordsClimate change, Adaptation, Vulnerability, Forest, Forest Communities, Ecosystem Services, Tools, Methods, Models.

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“…Some of them stand a very epistemological level stating the usefulness of the methodology without applying it (e.g. Moss, Pahl-Wostl, and Downing 2001;Patt and Siebenhüner 2005). Few applications explicitly aim at analysing climate change at a theoretical level (e.g.…”

Section: Further Expansion Of Abmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviewing Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

Balbi

Giupponi

2009

SSRN Journal

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The integrated -environmental, economic and social -analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.

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Agent Based Modeling and Adaptation to Climate Change

Cited by 55 publications

References 33 publications

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change

Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and people to climate change: an introduction

Reviewing Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

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