Agent-Based Modeling of a Thermal Energy Transition in the Built Environment

Abstract

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, an energy transition is taking place in the European Union. Achieving these targets requires changes in the heating and cooling sector (H&C). Designing and implementing this energy transition is not trivial, as technology, actors, and institutions interact in complex ways. We provide an illustrative example of the development and use of an agent-based model (ABM) for thermal energy transitions in the built environment, from the perspective of sociotechnical systems (STS) and complex adaptive systems (CAS). In our illustrative example, we studied the transition of a simplified residential neighborhood to heating without natural gas. We used the ABM to explore socioeconomic conditions that could support the neighborhoods’ transition over 20 years while meeting the neighborhoods’ heat demand. Our illustrative example showed that through the use of STS, CAS, and an ABM, we can account for technology, actors, institutions, and their interactions while designing for thermal energy transitions in the built environment.

A systemic approach to analyze integrated energy system modeling tools: A review of national models

“…Social aspects of the energy system transition are usually neglected in ESMs. To this end, some studies included actors' behavior in the energy system from the demand perspective, for example, the thermal demand transition [ 16 ] or the efficiency of adaptation measures in households [ 17 ]. Analyzing each of the major changes in the energy system can be challenging for conventional ESMs as they need further capabilities such as fine technological detail, high temporal and spatial resolutions, and the presence of stakeholders’ behavior.…”

The Use of Energy Models in Local Heating Transition Decision Making: Insights from Ten Municipalities in The Netherlands

“…An overview of the literature found describing different modelling methods used for a sustainable heating transition is shown in Table A2, Appendix B (relevant findings for the present study). Reviewing this sample [1, shows that although modelling approaches have the potential to reduce the uncertainty of complex social issues, there is currently no systematic approach on how to apply models to make policy decisions and how to consider not only objective facts but also social and socio-economic factors. As the complexity of heating transition projects is partly due to the dependency on social factors such as human behaviour, models which consider not only objective techno-economic factors but also social and socio-economic factors, could increase the value of modelling approaches in heating transition projects [13,22,35,38,39].…”

“…In 2016, the heating and cooling sector accounted for half of the EU's energy consumption [1]. In The Netherlands, 53% of the national heat supply is provided by natural gas [2].…”

“…In The Netherlands, 53% of the national heat supply is provided by natural gas [2]. In March 2018, the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction from the Groningen gas field by 2030 [1] to help reach the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and to reduce the negative impact of natural gas extraction in the province of Groningen [2]. This is also referred to as the so-called 'heating transition' in The Netherlands and was later defined by the RVO (The Netherlands Enterprise Agency) as removing natural gas from industry, the built environment and the agricultural sector [2], and replacing it by (sustainable) heating alternatives.…”

“…To reach this goal, 1.5 million existing residential homes have to be supplied with sustainable heating by 2030 [3]. However, this is challenging because decision-making and policymaking in this transition are far from simple, as actors, technology and institutions interact in a complex manner [1]. The heating transition requires a change of the supply of renewable energy, the infrastructure, residential heating systems and of thermal insulation in residential houses, which all raise questions about the division of costs and the freedom of choice [4].…”