Agent-based modeling of urban land-use development, case study: Simulating future scenarios of Qazvin city

Hosseinali, Farhad; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Nourian, Farshad

doi:10.1016/j.cities.2012.09.002

Cited by 78 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Dalam rangka mengantisipasi konversi lahan yang tidak terkontrol maka dibutuhkan perencanaan yang tepat sesuai dengan kebutuhan dimasa depan. Simulasi penggunaan lahan merupakan pendekatan populer untuk menguji kebijakan dan strategi dalam rangka mengurangi dampak dari pembangunan yang tidak diinginkan dengan beberapa skenario perencanaan (Hosseinali, et al, 2013). Pemodelan spasial penggunaan lahan dapat digunakan untuk melakukan analisis penggunaan lahan secara spasial dalam periode waktu tertentu dan diprediksikan distribusi spasial perubahan penggunaan lahannya.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Simulasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Industri Kendal (KIK) Berbasis Cellular Automata

Sadewo¹,

Buchori

2018

MGI

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Kawasan industri Kendal (KIK) dikembangkan dengan luas mencapai 2.200 Ha di utara kecamatan kaliwungu diperkirakan menyerap hingga 500.000 tenaga kerja. KIK akan mengakselerasi pertumbuhan kota yang ditandai dengan proses urbanisasi dan konsumsi lahan yang tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan prediksi penggunaan lahan tahun 2031 dengan adanya KIK di Kendal Timur. Pendekatan yang digunakan yaitu kuantitatif berbasis raster, dengan analisis proyeksi perkembangan lahan terbangun berdasarkan trend perubahan penggunaan lahan tahun 2005 – 2017 dan kebutuhan lahan akibat KIK. Model simulasi perubahan penggunaan lahan dengan model Cellular Automata (CA) dengan faktor pendorong meliputi faktor biofisik, sosial ekonomi, sarana prasarana, aksesbilitas dan ketetanggaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan KIK memiliki pengaruh yang kuat untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan kawasan perkotaan kaliwungu. Arah perkembangan Kendal Timur tahun 2031 dominan terjadi di kecamatan kaliwungu kemudian menyebar di kecamatan brangsong, kota Kendal, kaliwungu selatan dan ngampel dengan mengikuti pola perkembangan konsentris linier. Penggunaan lahan yang mengalami pertumbuhan tahun 2031 meliputi industri (2017,96 Ha), permukiman (1007,30 Ha), perdagangan dan jasa (271,39 Ha), dan gudang (18,76 Ha) yang diikuti terkonversinya lahan non terbangun yaitu tambak (1593,5 Ha), sawah irigasi (784,35 Ha kebun campuran (362,34 Ha), tegalan (361,65 Ha), tanah terbuka (145,5 Ha), sawah tadah hujan (66,71 Ha) dan hutan produksi (1,32 Ha).

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Simulasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Industri Kendal (KIK) Berbasis Cellular Automata

Sadewo¹,

Buchori

2018

MGI

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“…Iran as a developing country in Asia, is witnessing continual large-scale urbanization (Rafiee et al 2009;Hosseinali et al 2013). Urban population in Iran has increased from 47 % in 1976 to 61 % in 1996 (Rafiee et al 2009;Fanni 2006) and number of towns and cities in Iran has also increased significantly, from 199 towns in 1956 to 1200 in 2012 (Statistical Center of Iran).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban sprawl assessment and modeling using landsat images and GIS

Mohammady

Delavar

2016

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Nowadays, urban sprawl phenomenon have been seen in many of cities in the developing and developed countries. Urban sprawl is considered as a particular kind of urban growth which comes up with a lot of negative effects. Thus, monitoring, analyzing and modeling of this phenomenon seem to be unavoidable. This paper assess urban sprawl in Tehran Metropolis as the capital of Iran and models urban sprawl in this mega city utilizing artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-based fuzzy inference system methods with remote sensing data and geospatial information systems spatial analyses and modeling capabilities to simulate Tehran urban growth. The results confirm that this city has experienced sprawl and sprawl has an increasing rate. Three Landsat imageries from TM and ETM? sensors taken in 1988, 1999 and 2010 and seven predictor variables include distance to road, distance to green space, slope, elevation, distance to fault, distance to developed area and number of urban cells in 3 by 3 neighborhoods have been used for urban sprawl assessment and modeling. Relative operating characteristics (ROC) and sensitivity analyses have been used to evaluate simulation results. In this research, two evaluation steps have been implemented using ROC and on the both of them, ANFIS presented the best performance vs two different proposed ANN structures.

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“…The rapid expansion of residential areas endangers environmental resources and human health (Wilson, James, Michael, & Arnold, ; Xie & Fan, ; Zhang, Su, Xiao, Jiang, & Wu, ), and metropolises play a substantial role in the depletion of resources and the ongoing increases in environmental pollution (Chen, Li, Liu, Ai, & Li, ). Hence, the simulation of urban growth, especially in metropolises, is vitally important in carrying out precise planning for the future (Hosseinali, Alesheikh, & Nourian, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Moghadam

Karimi

Habibi

2018

Transactions in GIS

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Although traditional cellular automata (CA)-based models can effectively simulate urban land-use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell-based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch-based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a patterncalibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000-2006-2012.The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell-based CA and logistic-patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch-level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre-existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch-based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models.

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Agent-based modeling of urban land-use development, case study: Simulating future scenarios of Qazvin city

Cited by 78 publications

References 20 publications

Simulasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Industri Kendal (KIK) Berbasis Cellular Automata

Simulasi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Akibat Pembangunan Kawasan Industri Kendal (KIK) Berbasis Cellular Automata

Urban sprawl assessment and modeling using landsat images and GIS

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

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