Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics

Sobiech, Cilli

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-32365-2

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…These characteristics make ABMs suitable to trace behavioural features, social interactions and feedback loops among agents subjected to physical pressures from natural hazards in different spatial and social contexts (e.g. mountain regions, social and economic networks) (Sobiech, 2013).…”

Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, structural and non-structural adaptation measures can also be implemented and tested within the model, evaluating their effectiveness in the whole risk assessment chain: from emergency strategies to reduce the number of exposed targets, to preventive actions for hazards extension containment and post-events impact evaluation (Balbi et al, 2013;Sobiech, 2013;Balbi and Giupponi, 2009).…”

Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One limitation of ABMs is their lack to explicitly assess uncertainty, which make them a deterministic method and can lead to the "truthmachine" misinterpretation (Balbi and Giupponi, 2009;Sobiech, 2013). However, simulations through Monte Carlo analysis remain a common approach for the management of uncertainties (Mallampalli et al, 2016;Kelly et al, 2013).…”

Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Terzi

Torresan

Schneiderbauer

et al. 2019

Journal of Environmental Management

154

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Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socioeconomic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.

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Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Multi-risk Criteria Fulfilmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Terzi

Torresan

Schneiderbauer

et al. 2019

Journal of Environmental Management

154

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Imperfect heterogeneous actors and their individual decisions, activities and interactions can be represented in an agent-based model (ABM) (Wainwright and Mulligan 2013). In fact, agent-based modelling has been extensively used to gain a deeper understanding of complexity and has been acknowledged to build upon complexity research as a theoretical basis (Sobiech 2012). Thus, an ABM seems suitable to model human decision making in quantitative flood-risk assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Capturing flood-risk dynamics with a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework

Michaelis

Brandimarte

Mazzoleni

2020

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human-flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system.

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Understanding Resilience: A Spatio-temporal Vulnerability Assessment of a Population Affected by a Sudden Lack of Food

Münzberg

Wiens

Schultmann

2015

International Series in Operations Research &Amp; Management Science

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Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Capturing flood-risk dynamics with a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework

Understanding Resilience: A Spatio-temporal Vulnerability Assessment of a Population Affected by a Sudden Lack of Food

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