Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees

Termos, Ali; Picascia, Stefano; Yorke-Smith, Neil

doi:10.18564/jasss.4472

Cited by 4 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…At a high level, the methodological approach is to study selected historical shocks to the Beirut residential housing market by means of ABM and simulation. To achieve this, we adapt the spatially-explicit ABM of Termos et al (2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ABM of Termos et al (2021) models the urban dynamics of residential housing of Beirut. Its original purpose was to study the possible societal consequences and economic indicators of migration, notably the influx of refugees during the 2010s (Cherri et al, 2016).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Contemporary urban environments, such as Greater Beirut, manifest themselves as complex, interconnected socio-technical systems. As Termos et al (2021) note, agent-based models have emerged to complement econometric and social science models in the study of such systems. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a micro-simulation approach to the study of complex systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This article brings ABM to bear on the crises of Beirut's history in the 21st century. We draw on the spatially-explicit agent-based simulation model of Termos et al (2021). Those authors studied migration caused by the Syrian War and its effect on the housing market, segregation, and urban dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urbanism and Geographic Crises: A Micro-Simulation Lens on Beirut

Termos

Yorke-Smith

2022

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At a geographical and strategic confluence, the ancient city of Beirut, Lebanon, has witnessed crises from natural and human causes over the centuries. The modern urban and peri-urban development is a result of neo-classical economics, laissez-faire regulations, and complex socio-political structures. This article considers the contemporary housing situation and asks about its resilience to crises. The methodological approach is speculative simulation. We capture the urban status quo through agent-based simulation, and simulate a range of independent shocks. Although the goal of the article is exploratory and not historical replay, the shocks considered are historical exemplars, such as the explosion on August 4th, 2020. Looking across peri-urban Beirut, we measure qualitative effects on housing economics and dynamics. The research question thus addressed is to determine the optimal amount of capital needed for regeneration without triggering a price increase in the housing market. The contribution of the article is a data-and-modelling approach to humane questions of interest to urban scholars. The simulation model is available open source to provoke further enquiry.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urbanism and Geographic Crises: A Micro-Simulation Lens on Beirut

Termos

Yorke-Smith

2022

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“…In the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, a major social sciences simulation journal, very few articles have been published about forced migration. These cover topic areas centered around policy ranging from implications of border closures (Suleimenova and Groen 2020), consequences for housing markets (Termos, Picascia, and Yorke-Smith 2021), and the logistics of refugee resettlement programs (Boshuijzen-van Burken et al 2020). These are very representative of the larger themes that simulation of forced migration tends to follow: policing, economics, and logistics.…”

Section: Policy-centric Themes Of Mands In Forced Migration Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Simulation as a Bridge to Advance Practical and Theoretical Insights About Forced Migration Studies

Frydenlund

2021

Journal on Migration and Human Security

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Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is a relatively unused research approach in forced migration studies. In most of its application areas, M&S is applied in several broad thematic policy-oriented topics: predicting human movement, humanitarian logistics, communicable diseases, healthcare, policing, and economics. More recently, there has been increased use of M&S in predicting human movement and health impacts resulting from climate change. Computer modeling has benefits for both policy and theoretical advancements in the field. M&S is often associated as a predictive tool that appeals to policymakers and planners. But M&S has many other significant benefits. For policymakers and planners, M&S provides a simulated environment to explore “what-if” scenarios. These scenarios can be adjusted to reflect different assumptions and conditions in the field. M&S can provide a means for translating interpretivist research findings—themselves rich in descriptions of actors, relationships, and dynamics—into visual artifacts that can communicate results to policymakers. It also can help to test the assumptions of theoretical findings, explore generalizability to other cases and conditions, and inform future data collection efforts. On the other hand, because models can take a long time to construct and test, they cannot provide rapid insights about evolving situations to inform decision-making at the onset of a new emergency. Data dashboards, the staple of modern humanitarian operations, are better for identifying emergent needs and tracking efforts. However, modeling what we know from one situation allows us to use those insights in systematic and strategic ways to improve operations for the future. M&S can also provide researchers with an additional tool that allows improved integration of multiple data types and sources. These data, assumptions, and theoretical constructs can be linked together in a complex, nonlinear, dynamic system that can then be set in motion to see if the simulated world reveals phenomena that are witnessed in the real world. But interdisciplinary communication and collaboration is hard and finding modelers who value interpretivist research can be even harder. M&S is not a silver bullet but provides a unique approach that incorporates dynamics and is becoming increasingly accessible to policymakers, practitioners, and academics, including those without computer programing experience. For policy, it is important to invest the time and resources to develop simulation models—from simple to complex—that help when planning for the evolution of events, or for the next event. Models of current refugee situations should inform where to concentrate efforts to advance durable solutions and how to plan for potential scenarios of return to countries of origin. Policymakers must recognize the long-term value of modeling what we know now to use later. Researchers of migration should become familiar with M&S paradigms so they can become part of the model design, development, and testing phases—at least part of the conversation. Better integration of migration scholars in design and development has the potential to strengthen models for policymaking, but perhaps more importantly, to strengthen the field by serving as an extra tool for testing theories, assumptions, and generalizability of findings to other locations and situations.

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Disparity of Density in the Age of Mobility: Analysis by Opinion Formation Model

Horiuchi

2023

Computers

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High mobility has promoted the concentration of people’s aggregation in urban areas. As people pursue areas with higher density, gentrification and sprawl become more serious. Disadvantaged people are then pushed out of urban centers. Conversely, as mobility increases, the disadvantaged may also migrate in pursuit of their desired density. As a result, disparities relative to density and housing may shrink. Hence, migration is a complex system. Understanding the effects of migration on disparities intuitively is difficult. This study explored the effects of mobility on disparity using an agent-based model of opinion formation. We find that as mobility increases, disparities between agents in density and diversity widen, but as mobility increases further, the disparities shrink, and then widen again. Our results present possibilities for a just city in the age of mobility.

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Agent-Based Simulation of West Asian Urban Dynamics: Impact of Refugees

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Urbanism and Geographic Crises: A Micro-Simulation Lens on Beirut

Urbanism and Geographic Crises: A Micro-Simulation Lens on Beirut

Modeling and Simulation as a Bridge to Advance Practical and Theoretical Insights About Forced Migration Studies

Disparity of Density in the Age of Mobility: Analysis by Opinion Formation Model

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