Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

Mostafizi, Alireza; Wang, Haizhong; Cox, Dan; Cramer, Lori A.; Dong, Shangjia

doi:10.1007/s11069-017-2927-y

Cited by 85 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The evacuation mode distribution is location and scenario dependent, and therefore requires more research exploring factors that explain variation in observations. Nevertheless, high percentages of evacuation by vehicle can cause traffic congestion that would slow down the evacuation process ( 11 , 27 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Households’ Intended Evacuation Transportation Behavior in Response to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard in a Cascadia Subduction Zone City

Chen

Buylova

Chand

et al. 2020

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone would generate a local tsunami that could arrive at coastlines within minutes. Few studies provide empirical evidence to understand the potential behaviors of local residents during this emergency. To fill this knowledge gap, this study examines residents’ perceptions and intended evacuation behaviors in response to an earthquake and tsunami, utilizing a survey sent to households in Seaside, OR. The results show that the majority of respondents can correctly identify whether their house is inside or outside a tsunami inundation zone. Older respondents are more likely to identify this correctly regardless of any previous disaster evacuation experience or community tenure. The majority of respondents (69%) say they would evacuate in the event of a tsunami. Factors influencing this choice include age, motor ability, access to transportation, and trust in infrastructure resiliency or traffic conditions. While the City of Seaside actively promotes evacuation by foot, 38% of respondents still state they would use a motor vehicle to evacuate. Females and older respondents are more likely to evacuate by foot. Respondents with both higher confidence in their knowledge of disaster evacuation and higher income are more likely to indicate less time needed to evacuate than others. Generally, respondents are more likely to lead rather than follow during an evacuation, especially respondents who report being more prepared for an evacuation and who have a higher perceived risk. This study showcases a unique effort at empirically analyzing human tsunami evacuation lead or follow choice behavior.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tsunami shelter areas are located approximately 1.5 km east from any shoreline, and the city’s transportation system is heavily dependent on a network of bridges. All of these factors contribute to Seaside’s high vulnerability to earthquake and tsunami events ( 24 , 27 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Households’ Intended Evacuation Transportation Behavior in Response to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard in a Cascadia Subduction Zone City

Chen

Buylova

Chand

et al. 2020

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

Self Cite

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“…Tsunamis are significant threats to coastal communities; therefore, emergency managers are consistently seeking ways to protect people from harm. Efforts to understand population vulnerability to tsunamis have focused on estimating the number and type of people in hazard zones (e.g., Wood et al 2010), the ability of individuals to reach safety (e.g., Mas et al 2012;Di Mauro et al 2013;Fraser et al 2014;Wood et al 2015), and strategies to reduce fatalities (Park et al 2012;Leon and March 2015;Mostafizi et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

et al. 2018

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Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of postdisaster assessments in pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards and use the US territory of American Samoa as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of tsunami inundation zones recreated for the 2009 M w 8.1 Samoa earthquake, as well as for a probable maximum tsunami zone for future threats. Modeling assumptions are guided by fatality trends and observations of 2009 evacuation behavior, including insights on departure delays, environmental cues, transportation mode, and demographic characteristics. Differences in actual fatalities from the 2009 disaster and modeled population vulnerability suggest that a single set of estimated travel times to safety does not fully characterize evacuation potential of a dispersed, at-risk population. Efforts to prepare coastal communities in American Samoa for future tsunamis may be challenging given substantial differences in wave characteristics and evacuation potential of the probable maximum hazard compared to the 2009 event.

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“…A plethora of studies exist on disaster evacuation modelling thanks to the increasing level of realism provided by simulations. Agent-based modelling (hereafter ABM) is one of the most used approaches to this end (like in the studies of Chen & Zhan, 2008;Christensen & Sasaki, 2008;Hawe et al, 2012;Mostafizi et al, 2017;Ukkusuri et al, 2017;Kasereka et al, 2018;Olsvik et al, 2018;etc.). Agent-oriented models allow the behaviours of heterogeneous individual components of a complex system, which function autonomously to achieve their specific desired objectives in a common environment through mutual environmental interactions, to be described (Albino et al, 2007).…”

Section: Agent-based Modelling In Disaster Evacuation Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based model for simulating households’ self-evacuation decision in high-rise buildings under critical infrastructure failures induced by a slow-onset flood conditions – A case study in Paris

et al. 2020

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Generating well-informed and reliable predictions for disaster evacuation is a large challenge. Crisis and disaster management policymakers have to deal with poor data quality, a limited understanding of households' behaviour dynamics, and uncertainty regarding the effects of the various actions/measures in place. Agent-based simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning disaster evacuation procedures. However, one of the most important aspects of this issue, which is social influence, is not often considered. Most of existing evacuation models largely overlook the importance of the households' behaviours and social influences, which leads to oversimplified models. Moreover, it is almost impossible to find models in the literature that focus on the extrinsic decision-making factors of some evacuees, such as compromised lifelines, in the case of catastrophic events. In contrast to the existing evacuation models, this paper suggests a probabilistic agent-based model that relies on the loss of different lifelines as factors affecting evacuees' decision-making in addition to some intrinsic factors that are used to characterise the propensity of households to evacuate and explicitly allow for social contagion as well as uncertainties to be considered. This model, in which all the variables are considered uncertain and Monte Carlo Simulations are run to estimate the confidence range of the predictions, is tailored to estimate the potential number of inhabitants that have not been evacuated in high-rise buildings in the face of critical infrastructure failures induced by a slow-onset flood and/or the actions taken during the related crisis, considering different uncertainties that may affect the reliability of the prediction. The model has been specifically designed to predict the dynamics of households' self-evacuations in fourteen residential high-rise buildings located in a flood-prone area in Paris. This paper

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Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

Cited by 85 publications

References 49 publications

Households’ Intended Evacuation Transportation Behavior in Response to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard in a Cascadia Subduction Zone City

Households’ Intended Evacuation Transportation Behavior in Response to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard in a Cascadia Subduction Zone City

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

Agent-based model for simulating households’ self-evacuation decision in high-rise buildings under critical infrastructure failures induced by a slow-onset flood conditions – A case study in Paris

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