Aggregate Income Shocks and Infant Mortality in the Developing World

Abstract

Health and income are strongly correlated both within and across countries, yet the extent to which improvements in income have a causal effect on health status remains controversial. We investigate whether short-term fluctuations in aggregate income affect infant mortality using an unusually large data set of 1.7 million births in 59 developing countries. We show a large, negative association between per capita GDP and infant mortality. Female infant mortality is more sensitive than male infant mortality to negative economic shocks, suggesting that policies that protect the health status of female infants may be especially important during economic downturns. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse

“…However, the coefficients of the control variables are typically consistent with the empirical and theoretical literature, confirming the validity of IGME's child mortality data. For example, GDP per capita growth significantly decreases child mortality across all categories, supporting previous studies (Pritchett and Summers, 1996, Cutler et al, 2002, Bhalotra, 2010, and Baird et al, 2011 that demonstrate the role of income in reducing child mortality in poor countries. Strikingly, the significant and mortalityreducing effect of democracy illustrates the role that institutional quality may play in welfare, particularly in low-to lower-middle-income countries.…”

“…for example, booms in food prices are theorised to lead to malnutrition (Christian, 2010;Darnton-Hill and Cogill, 2010), and more broadly, commodity prices affect macroeconomic conditions (Céspedes and Velasco, 2014), which in turn determine infant mortality rates (Baird et al, 2011). The few exceptions include Miller and Urdinola (2010) who examine the case of Columbia using three episodes of sharp coffee price movements in 1975, 1985 and 1989-90.…”

Weight of the Crisis: Evidence from Newborns in Argentina

“…However, evidence coming from developed countries show that infant mortality actually decreases during recessions (e.g., Deheija and Lleras- As recently emphasized by Miller and Urdinola (2010), the variety of conclusions on the impact of macroeconomic shocks on children's health can be explained by the use of diverse methodologies or di¤erent behavioral responses to distinct macroeconomic shocks. Households may be able to smooth consumption or at least bu¤er expenditures on goods that protect health, as long as they are not credit constrained, which may explain why the mortality of children born to less educated women is more sensitive to economic shocks (Baird, Friedman and Schady, 2010). At the same time, the opportunity cost of time allocated to the production of children's health may decrease with economic contractions.…”

“…Although birth weight is the most important determinant of perinatal, neonatal and postneonatal outcomes (McCormick, 1985;Pollack and Divon, 1992), there is very limited evidence on its response to economic crises, as documented by the very recent survey by Friedman and Sturdy (2011). 4 The e¤ect that we uncover for the Argentine sudden-economic collapse is more than three times higher the 8.7-gram reduction 4 Lower-birth-weight babies have worse outcomes in terms of one-year mortality rates (Van den Berg, Lindeboom, and Portrait, 2006). 4 due to stressful events estimated by Camacho (2008), and more than half of the 57-gram di¤erence explained by the intensity in mother's smoking behavior (20 cigarettes/day vs. > 1 pack/day), see Abel (1980).…”

Did the Millennium Development Goals Change Trends in Child Mortality?

“…This is conservative compared to the 0.24 to 0.40 change in infant mortality per 1,000 births reported in Baird et al (2011) where the authors use Demographic and Health Survey data.…”