Aggregate Oil Refining Models

Abstract

Models may be constructed and used to represent, on an aggregate level, the entire refining industry of a country (France) or of a given geographic zone. The first part of this article analyzes the aggregation problems that arise during linear programming modeling. These problems are particularly acute when the refining model has to be coupled with other models (e.g. energy models) because excessive simplifications may lead to irrelevant results. The second part of the article gives some application examples. Then the final part describes the formulation retained for representing the petroleum sector in the ‘Mini-DMS Energie’ model. This model was built under the impetus of the ‘Commissariat Général du Plan’ on the basis of the Mini DMS (Dynamique Multi-Sectoriel) macroeconomic model developed by INSEE (Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques). Its aim is to analyze energy–economy interactions. In this model the refining industry is characterized by equations of the econometric type estimated on the basis of artificial sampling.