2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229872
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Aggressive COVID-19 “second wave” in Italy

Abstract: A two-step model for the rise and decay of the COVID-19 is applied to the Fall resurgence of COVID-19 in Italy. Data starting from October 6, 2020 are compared to the same time interval in Italy starting from the complete lockdown on March 14, 2020. The model predicts more than 130,000 deceased by the end of the year 2020 if no effective measures are taken. If similar measures to the March ones are quickly adopted, the number of deceased may decrease to over 50,000. The situation is extremely serious and requi… Show more

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Cited by 2 publications
(6 citation statements)
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“…The estimates above could be misleading because, especially at the very beginning of the disease, only part of the population was tested. Since the number of tests each day are known we can define probabilities as the number of cases divided the number of tests [5] [6] [7] [8]. These probabilities are reported in the bottom panels of Figure 1.…”
Section: R mentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…The estimates above could be misleading because, especially at the very beginning of the disease, only part of the population was tested. Since the number of tests each day are known we can define probabilities as the number of cases divided the number of tests [5] [6] [7] [8]. These probabilities are reported in the bottom panels of Figure 1.…”
Section: R mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The decrease is very encouraging but it maybe misleading since could be due to lockdowns or simply to a major awareness from the population. A more suitable quantity may be given by the ratio of probabilities or cases in two different periods, see Equation (8).…”
Section: Controlling Chaosmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The estimates above could be misleading because, especially at the very beginning of the disease, only part of the population was tested. Since the number of tests each day are known we can define probabilities as the number of cases divided the number of tests [5][6][7][8]. These probabilities are reported in the bottom panels of figure 1.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In refs. [5][6][7][8] we discussed the fact that the cumulative probability to be infected by COVID-19 (number of cases divided by number of tests) follows the same eq. ( 4) with the iteration n substituted by time t, thus if we know the Lyapunov exponents for the data and the map we can easily make a connection between time and iteration i.e.,…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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