Aging Out of Crime: Exploring the Relationship Between Age and Crime with Agent-Based Modeling

Abstract

Criminologists have long observed a strong correlation between age and crime. The age crime relationship has withstood stringent testing since the 1920's and repeatedly demonstrated that criminal activity peaks at age seventeen and then gradually declines. These efforts have resulted in the formation of several theories; however, quantitative assessment of these theories are incomplete and fail to fully examine the role of sociological and cultural factors. In this paper, we create an agent-based model (ABM) that generates a society where individuals age out of a predisposition to commit crimes. We also extend the model into a tool for decision makers to gather actionable insight with respect to competing crime reduction policies. Our results demonstrate that modeling crime through an ABM enables decision makers to test the viability of crime-related policies by reducing the uncertainty associated with the potential crime reduction outcomes while examining the effectiveness of resource allocations.

Mother Dearest: Understanding Attachment Styles of Juvenile Offenders across Crime Types

“…Yet crime trends would suggest that individuals age "in-and-out" of crime. One's propensity to commit crime peaks around 17, drops precipitously through one's early 20s, and is very low the rest of the life course (Cornelius, et al, 2017). Criminologists have found that crime trends are more closely associated with birth cohorts than other environmental variables.…”