2023
DOI: 10.3390/agriculture13112154
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Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security

Mariusz Hamulczuk,
Karolina Pawlak,
Joanna Stefańczyk
et al.

Abstract: The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting mod… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(6 citation statements)
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“…However, prior to the Ukraine-Russia war, Granger causality did not demonstrate an imbalanced link between positive and negative shocks to oil prices and positive and negative shocks to food inflation. This results are consistent with Abay et al (2023), Al-Rousan et al (2024, Bagchi & Paul, 2023;Hanif et al, 2024;He et al, 2023;Hamulczuk et al, 2023;Headey & Hirvonen, 2023;Kilfoyle, 2023;Lin et al, 2023;Raga et al, 2024;Rashad et al, 2023;Tass et al, 2024;Zhang et al, 2024. According to Al-Rousan et al (2024, Kim (2022), andPaudel et al (2023) explain that the war is between Russia and Ukraine significantly correlated with food, cereals, meat, and oils prices, with WTI and Brent crude showing a strong relationship.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 74%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…However, prior to the Ukraine-Russia war, Granger causality did not demonstrate an imbalanced link between positive and negative shocks to oil prices and positive and negative shocks to food inflation. This results are consistent with Abay et al (2023), Al-Rousan et al (2024, Bagchi & Paul, 2023;Hanif et al, 2024;He et al, 2023;Hamulczuk et al, 2023;Headey & Hirvonen, 2023;Kilfoyle, 2023;Lin et al, 2023;Raga et al, 2024;Rashad et al, 2023;Tass et al, 2024;Zhang et al, 2024. According to Al-Rousan et al (2024, Kim (2022), andPaudel et al (2023) explain that the war is between Russia and Ukraine significantly correlated with food, cereals, meat, and oils prices, with WTI and Brent crude showing a strong relationship.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 74%
“…The fact that oil prices have always fluctuated has undoubtedly increased the pressure on politicians to take action. As a result, a vast body of research focuses on how Food Price could be affected by shocks to the price of oil (Abay et al, 2023;Al-Rousan et al, 2024;Bagchi & Paul, 2023;Hamulczuk et al, 2023;Headey & Hirvonen, 2023;Kilfoyle, 2023;Raga et al, 2024;Rashad et al, 2023;Tass et al, 2024;Zhang et al, 2024). Studies indicate that oil price shocks during the Ukraine-Russian war negatively affect food prices in both petroleum-importing and petroleum-exporting countries.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The figures on exports and GDPs of EU countries are expressed in constant EUR to avoid erroneous conclusions due to the inflation recorded between 2008 and 2022, especially during the last two years as a result of the effect of the Ukraine War on agri-food product prices in EU countries [40]. The figures on each country's agri-food product exports are deflated using the deflator of agri-food products provided by [41].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The interconnection between fuel prices and the economy is a factor that needs careful assessment. At its beginning, the Ukrainian war caused a great disruption in the cereal market; this, along with an increasing trend in inflation and oil prices, created food security risks [84].…”
Section: Ammonia Productionmentioning
confidence: 99%