Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

Wang, Guiling

doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9

Cited by 313 publications

(228 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…If future increases in precipitation over northern China are caused by extreme precipitation events, this may not be sufficient for vegetation in dry areas to counterbalance increasing temperatures. Results from 15 global models suggest future reductions in soil moisture content over large parts of China during June-August, which may lead to agricultural drought (Wang, 2005).…”

Section: Effects Of Increased Gslmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007

Song

Linderholm

Chen

et al. 2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Observed 20th century changes in the length of the growing season (GS) across the Northern Hemisphere have been linked to increasing temperatures, associated with global warming. Past studies of GS changes in China have largely been based on phenological observations and satellite data, and little attention has been paid to changes in starting and ending dates of GS. Here we examine changes in the thermal GS over China from 1951 to 2007 based on observed daily surface air temperature. Using five indices, trends of three GS parameters, start, end and length, were determined at 114 high-quality stations over China. Our results show large spatial and temporal differences in the GS parameters in China, where the most prominent changes have occurred in northern China relative to southern China. On average, from 1951 to 2007 the GS has been extended by 2.3 days/decade in northern China where most of these changes is due to an earlier onset of the GS in spring (−1.7 days/decade). In southern China, there is an average increase of GS by 1.3 days/decade with 0.6 days/decade earlier onsets in spring. Furthermore, most stations showing significant trends of GS changes are located in northern China. An extended GS in northern China indicates improved agricultural conditions due to warmer and longer GS. However, this effect may be counteracted by changes in the precipitation pattern.

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Section: Effects Of Increased Gslmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007

Song

Linderholm

Chen

et al. 2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Sheffield and Wood [33] reproduced the large-scale droughts of the 20th century using the ensemble soil moisture simulations of 8 GCMs. An additional analysis of soil moisture simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also suggested that ensemble soil moisture simulations well represent the basic characteristics of regional climate changes, and then such simulations are frequently used in the research of land surface changes and land-atmosphere interactions [34,35]. Thus, ensemble soil moisture research is a useful approach for representing the dry-wet variability of regional climates and the boundary dynamics of climate zones.…”

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confidence: 99%

Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China

2012

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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An ensemble soil moisture dataset was produced from 11 of 25 global climate model (GCM) simulations for two climate scenarios spanning 1900 to 2099; this dataset was based on an evaluation of the spatial correlation of means and trends in reference to soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing. Using the ensemble soil moisture index, we analyzed the dry-wet climate variability and the dynamics of the climate zone boundaries in China over this 199-year period. The results showed that soil moisture increased in the typically arid regions, but with insignificant trends in the humid regions; furthermore, the soil moisture exhibited strong oscillations with significant drought trends in the transition zones between arid and humid regions. The dynamics of climate zone boundaries indicated that the expansion of semiarid regions and the contraction of semi-humid regions are typical characteristics of the dry-wet climate variability for two scenarios in China. During the 20th century, the total area of semiarid regions expanded by 11.5% north of 30°N in China, compared to the average area for 1970-1999, but that of semi-humid regions decreased by approximately 9.8% in comparison to the average for the period of 1970-1999, even though the transfer area of the humid to the semi-humid regions was taken into account. For the 21st century, the dynamics exhibit similar trends of climate boundaries, but with greater intensity. soil moisture, dry-wet climate, climate zone Citation:Li M X, Ma Z G. Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China.

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“…Most large-scale studies focus either on precipitation or soil moisture (e.g. Wang, 2005;Sheffield and Wood, 2008;Xu et al, 2009;Dai, 2012;Vidal et al, 2012; * Correspondence to: G. Leng, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China. E-mail: lenggy.11b@igsnrr.ac.cn Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013;Trenberth et al, 2014) or runoff/streamflow related extremes (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

et al. 2015

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Understanding how hydrological extremes would respond to global warming and its associated uncertainties is important for better designing mitigation and adaption strategies to cope with global change. Very few works have investigated the changes in future hydrological extremes and, especially, the more devastating joint hydrological extremes over China. In this article, two combinations of joint extremes [i.e. high runoff/high soil moisture (HRHS) and low runoff/low soil moisture (LRLS)] are designed for analysis. To derive the scenarios of hydrological conditions, the bias-corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios are used to drive the calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model from 1951 to 2099 over China. Results show notable increase of occurrence of HRHS in Northeast China, LRLS in Northwest and South of China under 2 ∘ C global warming. The spatial pattern of changes in joint extremes tends to remain stable with global temperature increase up to 3 ∘ C. Compared with the individual extreme risk, joint extreme are much more concentrated in Northwest and South China and the magnitude of changes is several times larger. Larger areas experiencing changes are found when using lower standards of extreme definition. Because hydrological regime may change gradually in response to climate change, the threshold derived from present regime may lead to misrepresentation of extreme risk analysis. This was demonstrated by the ten times smaller magnitude of changes when adopting the updated transient threshold representing the changing hydrological regime, thus providing a low-boundary of potential changes in extremes. Our results highlight the importance of considering the changing hydrological regime in addition to choosing various levels of threshold for extreme definition in order to cover the full range of possible extreme changes in a warming climate.

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Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

Cited by 313 publications

References 23 publications

Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007

Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007

Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China

Assessments of joint hydrological extreme risks in a warming climate in China

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