Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology

Lalić, Branislava; Eitzinger, Josef; Marta, Anna Dalla; Orlandini, Simone; Sremac, Ana Firanj; Pacher, Bernhard

doi:10.36253/978-88-6453-795-5

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Combined models reduced the magnitude of all the prediction error metrics to near acceptable levels. Although an error (MAPE or RPE) up to 20% is acceptable for setting dosage rates in the veterinary pharmaceutical industry [ 42 ], an error of more than 10% can be problematic [ 43 , 44 , 45 ] in other agricultural fields. In this study, values were approximately 9% to 12% for liveweight alone models and 8% to 10% for the combined models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Ewe Body Condition Score Using Lifetime Liveweight and Liveweight Change, and Previous Body Condition Score Record

Semakula

Corner-Thomas

Morris

et al. 2020

Animals

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The body condition score (BCS) in sheep (Ovis aries) is a widely used subjective measure of body condition. Body condition score and liveweight have been reported to be statistically and often linearly related in ewes. Therefore, it was hypothesized that current BCS could be accurately and indirectly predicted using a ewe’s lifetime liveweight, liveweight change, and previous BCS record. Ewes born between 2011 and 2012 (n = 11,798) were followed from 8 months to approximately 67 months of age in New Zealand. Individual ewe data was collected on liveweight and body condition scores at each stage of the annual cycle (pre-breeding, pregnancy diagnosis, pre-lambing, and weaning). Linear regression models were fitted to predict BCS at a given ewe age and stage of the annual cycle using a ewe’s lifetime liveweight records (liveweight alone models). Further, linear models were then fitted using previous BCS and changes in liveweight, in addition to the lifetime liveweight records (combined models). Using the combined models improved (p < 0.01) the R2 value by 39.8% (from 0.32 to 0.45) and lowered the average prediction error by 10% to 12% (from 0.29 to 0.26 body condition scores). However, a significant portion of the variability in BCS remained unaccounted for (39% to 89%) even in the combined models. The procedures found in this study, therefore, may overestimate or underestimate measures by 0.23 to 0.32 BCS, which could substantially change the status of the ewe, leading to incorrect management decisions. However, the findings do still suggest that there is potential for predicting ewe BCS from liveweight using linear regression if the key variables affecting the relationship between BCS and liveweight are accounted for.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Ewe Body Condition Score Using Lifetime Liveweight and Liveweight Change, and Previous Body Condition Score Record

Semakula

Corner-Thomas

Morris

et al. 2020

Animals

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“…Since changes in temperatures and precipitation significantly affect the biosphere (e.g., Lalić et al, 2018), viticulture as an important economic branch in the moderate latitudes (e.g., mainly between 35° and 55°; Jones, 2006) is strongly influenced by climate change (e.g., Bock, Sparks, Estrella, & Menzel, 2013; Fraga, García de Cortázar Atauri, Malheiro, Moutinho‐Pereira, & Santos, 2017; Koufos, Mavromatis, Koundouras, & Jones, 2018; Orlandini, Di Stefano, Lucchesini, Puglisi, & Bartolini, 2009). A number of recent studies (e.g., Fraga et al, 2016; Garnier, Daux, Yiou, & de Cortazar‐Atauri, 2011; Menzel, 2005; Webb et al, 2012) have shown that the phenological phases of grapevines, as well as grapevine yields and quality, are greatly influenced by temperature increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on viticulture in Croatia: Viticultural zoning and future potential

Omazić

Prtenjak

Prša

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Since changes in temperature and precipitation have different effects on (a) all developmental stages of grapevines in most of the wine regions worldwide (i.e., on their phenological characteristics) and (b) different varieties, a comprehensive database of bioclimatic indices has been calculated and analysed for Croatian wine producing regions. The database consists of the average growing season temperature, growing degree‐days, Huglin index, dryness index and cool night index that are based on all available meteorological measurements as well as the outputs of regional climate models (RCMs) from the EURO‐CORDEX database. The horizontal grid spacing of 0.11° from the RCM ensembles enabled a fine‐scale determination of bioclimatic indices for the present and future climate in Croatia. In addition, statistical analyses (standard statistical parameters and Bayesian method) were carried out to examine trends in sugar content, total acidity and date of harvest. Calculations were performed for the present and future climate on the basis of data from seven selected vineyards/wineries and four varieties (‘Graševina’, ‘Plavac mali’, ‘Chardonnay’ and ‘Merlot’). The results show whether the part of Croatia that is suitable for grape cultivation in the present climate will continue to be favourable in the future within the Mediterranean area. In general, projections suggest further warming and drying of the climate in Croatia and an earlier harvest, with some variations among varieties that show latitude dependence. Projections for the future climate also suggest that the existing viticultural zoning will be much less adequate for the Croatian territory because it reduces the economically sustainable production of wine in certain areas.

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“…Very probably, ground water level will play an extremely important role in this process. It is generally accepted that climate change may most severely influence ground water table level under the conditions of sandy soils (Lalic et al 2018), which is the case of the region of our research. The interaction of climatic and hydrological factors with site-specific and geomorphological conditions on windblown sands at Záhorie may have a substantial impact on Scots pine growth and prosperity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Radial increment and defoliation of Pinus sylvestris (L.) on sandy soils relate to summer temperatures and ground water level

Pajtík

Sitková

Marčiš

et al. 2022

Central European Forestry Journal

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The study deals with the analysis of the impact of climate and ground water table level on radial increment and defoliation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on sandy soils. The research was performed in the area of the Borska nížina (i.e. Borská Lowland, situated in southwest of Slovakia), where a substantial die-back of pine trees has been observed in the last decade. Increment measurements and defoliation assessment were performed at 150 adult trees of Scots pine growing at three permanent monitoring plots within the international network of ICP Forests during the years 1989–2018. We examined the impact of climatic and hydrological factors on selected features of pine using the methods of correlation analysis and linear mixed models. Statistical analyses confirmed that the annual radial increment of Scots pine significantly depended on the mean air temperature from June to August, and mean ground water level in the mentioned months. These two factors also significantly correlated with crown defoliation. The factors explained 26% and 32% of increment and defoliation variability, respectively. From the long-term perspective, our analyses indicated that the decrease of ground water level by 0.5 m in summer resulted in the increase of defoliation by 10%. The obtained results indicate a further increase of Scots pine die-back on easy-to-dry sandy soils in regions with low precipitation totals, particularly considering the ongoing climate change and its inherent factors.

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Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology

Cited by 13 publications

References 68 publications

Predicting Ewe Body Condition Score Using Lifetime Liveweight and Liveweight Change, and Previous Body Condition Score Record

Predicting Ewe Body Condition Score Using Lifetime Liveweight and Liveweight Change, and Previous Body Condition Score Record

Climate change impacts on viticulture in Croatia: Viticultural zoning and future potential

Radial increment and defoliation of Pinus sylvestris (L.) on sandy soils relate to summer temperatures and ground water level

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