Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain

Abstract

This paper explores the long-run effect of agricultural policies on industrialization and economic development. I analyse the differential effect of the Battle for Grain, implemented by the Italian Fascist regime to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat, on the development path across areas of Italy. Employing cross-sectional variation in land suitability for the advanced wheat production technologies, along with time variation in their diffusion, I find that the policy had unintended positive effects on industrialization and economic prosperity which persisted until today. Furthermore, I find that the complementarity between human capital and agricultural technology was a critical mechanism.

Agricultural productivity and economic development: the contribution of clover to structural transformation in Denmark

“…Previous research has investigated the impact of the introduction of the potato (Nunn and Qian, 2011), the introduction of the heavy plow (Andersen et al, 2016), the introduction of maize (Chen and Kung, 2016), the introduction of genetically modified soy beans (Bustos et al, 2016), the Green Revolution (Gollin et al, 2016), agricultural policy in China (Marden, 2016) and changes to agricultural policy (Carillo, 2018). Some of this research focus on developments in the past and other in the present (see also, Ashraf and Galor (2011) for the effect of agricultural productivity on development till 1500).…”

“…Moreover, we cover a longer period, though we note that their study has urbanization rates. Carillo (2018) exploits the Battle for Grain policy pursued in the 1920s in Italy to investigate the effect of agricultural productivity on structural change. His data cover from the late 19 th century to the early 21 st century.…”

“…As discussed in Carillo (2018), it is possible that agricultural productivity also affects human capital accumulation. Education could influence farmers' ability to understand and evaluate new inputs, and it is likely that the returns to education increase when the technological environment is changing.…”

Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade

“…Instead, it serves to highlight the important challenges economies face to the extent that similar mechanisms are present in developing countries today. 4 Finally, the paper contributes to the debate on why France was slow to adopt mechanized cotton-spinning technology (Allen 2009;Crafts 1995;Landes 2003). Most closely related to this paper's mechanism is Crafts (1995), who argued that the historical accident of mechanized spinning technology being invented in Britain, and not France, gave that country a significant first-mover advantage which made emulation for follower countries difficult.…”

“…See Melitz (2005) for a discussion. 4 It should also be noted that even if the effect driving the results are external economies of scale, the welfare implications are ambiguous because of the static negative welfare losses stemming from the higher price paid by consumers of cotton yarn. This discussion also abstracts from the myriad of other (arguably overwhelmingly negative) effects of the blockade.…”