Agroclimatic Metrics for the Main Stone Fruit Producing Areas in Spain in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios: Implications From an Adaptive Point of View

Abstract

Stone fruit production has enormous economic importance in Spain. Cultivation locations for these fruit species (i.e., peach, apricot, plum, and sweet cherry) cover wide and climatically diverse geographical areas within the country. Climate change is already producing an increase in average temperatures with special intensity in certain areas like the Mediterranean ones. These changes lead to a decrease in the accumulated chill, which can have a profound impact on the phenology of Prunus species like stone fruits due to, e.g., difficulties to cover the chilling requirements to break endodormancy, the occurrence of late frost events, or abnormal early high temperatures. All these factors can severely affect fruit production and quality and therefore provoke very negative consequences from the socio-economic point of view in the incumbent regions. Thus, characterization of current cultivation areas in terms of agroclimatic variables (e.g., chill and heat accumulation and probabilities of frost and early abnormal heat events), based on data from 270 weather stations for the past 20 years, is carried out in this work to produce an informative picture of the current situation. Besides, future climatic projections from different global climate models (data retrieved from the Meteorological State Agency of Spain—AEMET) up to 2065 for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are also analyzed. Using the current situation as a baseline and considering the future scenarios, information on the current and future adaptive suitability of the different species/cultivars to the different growing areas can be inferred. This information could be the basis of a decision support tool to help the different stakeholders to take optimal decisions regarding current and future stone fruit or other temperate species cultivation in Spain.

Climate change impacts on temperate fruit and nut production: a systematic review

“…For temperate fruit and nut trees, adequate winter chill and heat accumulation are critical requirements for satisfactory commercial production ( Gordo and Sanz, 2009 ; Cerutti et al., 2011 ; Luedeling et al., 2013 ; Darbyshire et al., 2016 ; Horikoshi et al., 2018 ; Fadon et al., 2020 ; Fernandez et al., 2020a ; del Barrio et al., 2022 ). Insufficient winter chill and increasing heat during key phenological stages can affect important physiological processes, leading to non-uniform flowering ( El Yaacoubi et al., 2014 ; Orlandi et al., 2014 ; Legave et al., 2015 ; Funes et al., 2016 ; Elloumi et al., 2024 ), delayed bud formation ( Bonhomme et al., 2005 ; El Yaacoubi et al., 2016 ; Yi et al., 2020 ; Barba-Espin et al., 2022 ), abnormal bud-break ( Bonhomme et al., 2005 ), fruit set reduction ( Hedhly et al., 2007 ; Ruiz and Egea, 2008 ; Benlloch-Gonzalez et al., 2018 ; Egea et al., 2022 ), and ultimately reduced yield potential ( Benmoussa et al., 2018 ; Moriondo et al., 2019 ; Mujahid et al., 2020 ; Fernandez et al., 2021 ). The literature reports a consistent decline in winter chill in all warm temperate climate regions around the world, which explains the high research interest in this topic.…”

Assessing the Seasonal Water Requirement of Fully Mature Japanese Plum Orchards: A Systematic Review

“…Spain, which recorded the most studies, is the seventh plum producer in the world and third in the European Union [28]. Plum production is of economic importance to Spain [29], as the cultivation of this fruit tree covers broad and climatically diverse regions within the country [30]. Spain is not exempted from the global effects of climate change and climate variability.…”

Physiological adaptations of the Japanese plum tree for agricultural productivity: A promising crop for high altitude tropics

“…Additionally, global warming has become a new challenge for the physiology of deciduous species (Luedeling, 2012), since an increase of 3.2°C in the global average temperature is expected by the end of the 21st century, compared to the year 1960 (IPCC, 2021). This could decrease the accumulation of CH in deciduous species, affect bud break and reduce pollinator activity (Egea et al, 2022), as has been observed in cultivated apple trees in the subtropical highlands of India (Nautiyal et al, 2020). Added to this, the highland areas of the tropical Andes will be more affected by climate change than the low-lying valley areas (Fischer, Parra-Coronado et al, 2022b).…”

“…The physiological behavior of deciduous trees in the high tropics is affected by climatic conditions since, due to their origin and adaptation in temperate zones (Erez, 2000;Fischer, 2013), the ecophysiological requirements of the species and the agronomic management of the crop must be fulfilled in a differential way (Gutiérrez-Villamil et al, 2022). In addition, climate change is a current risk for the production of deciduous fruit trees, including plum, as changes in temperature can affect their physiology, phenology and production (Egea et al, 2022). Considering the great importance and the productive and nutritious potential of the plum tree for growing and adaptation in the tropical highlands, the objective of this review was to present the current state of research in physiology adaptation and management, including aspects such as variety selection, ecophysiology, forced production management, gas exchange, flowering, pollination and fruit development of the Japanese plum.…”