Air quality improvements can strengthen China’s food security

Liu, Xiang; Chu, Bowen; Tang, Rong; Liu, Yifan; Qiu, Bo; Gao, Meng; Li, Xing; Xiao, Jingfeng; Sun, Haitong Zhe; Huang, Xin; Desai, Ankur R.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Haikun

doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00882-y

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 88 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The yield projections for winter wheat in the 3H Plain show an average increase during the mid-and late 21st century under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Similar findings have been reported by other studies using CMIP6 models, indicating that winter wheat yields across China are expected to rise [76,77]. These results contrast with those of Lv et al [42], potentially due to updates and revisions in the CMIP6 data.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

Xu,

Li,

et al. 2024

Agriculture

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change exerts significant impacts on regional agricultural production. This study assesses the implications of climate change on winter wheat yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), utilizing bias-corrected climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for mid-21st century (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). These projections were incorporated into the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Wheat model to forecast potential alterations in winter wheat production. Initial findings reveal that uncorrected CMIP6 projections underestimated temperature and precipitation while overestimating solar radiation across the southern 3H Plain. Following bias correction through the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method, the regional average biases for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were reduced by 18.3%, 5.6%, and 30.7%, respectively. Under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, mid-21st century simulations predicted a 13% increase in winter wheat yields. Late 21st century projections indicated yield increases of 11.3% and 3.6% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with a notable 8.4% decrease in yields south of 36° N under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The analysis of climate change factors and winter wheat yields in the 3H Plain under both scenarios identified precipitation as the key contributing factor to yield increases in the northern 3H Plain, while temperature limitations were the primary constraint on yields in the southern region. Consequently, adaptive strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts, with a particular focus on addressing the challenges posed by elevated temperature in the southern 3H Plain.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%