Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19−101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961−1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.
■ INTRODUCTIONFire is a disturbance that affects many terrestrial ecosystems around the globe. Through emissions from biomass combustion and alteration of land surface properties, fire results in feedbacks that influence the climate system. 1,2 Additionally, climatic changes in the form of increasing temperature and altered precipitation regimes affect fire frequency. 3,4 In some regions, climate feedbacks to fire frequency and extent have the potential to substantially reduce the fire rotation (i.e, time required to burn an area equal to the area of interest), resulting in novel vegetation assemblages. 5 Humans have been deliberately using fire to alter natural systems for millennia. 1 More recently, human actions related to ignition and suppression have been exerting bottom-up controls on fire by altering the amount of biomass available to fuel fire. Top-down climatic controls also have the potential to alter size, severity, and frequency of fire and can function independently of or interact with bottom-up controls. 6,7 In the presence of these climatic and anthropogenic controls, annual global fire emissions were estimated to range from 1.5−2.8 Pg C year −1 from 1997 to 2009,8 equivalent to approximately 17− 32% of 2008 global emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production [U.S. Department of Energy, http://cdiac. ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html]. The relative contribution of both anthropogenic and climatic controls on fire activity has varied with time, and future projections suggest that the primary driver of global fire activity will shift from human activities to temperature during the 21st century.9 At regional scales, increases in the size and frequency of large fires have been ...