Air temperature trends in Georgia under global warming conditions

Elizbarashvili, Elizbar; Tatishvili, Marika; Elizbarashvili, Mariam; Elizbarashvili, Sh. E.; Meskhiya, R. Sh.

doi:10.3103/s1068373913040043

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Climate variability as a driver for glacier variations in the Caucasus has recently been explored by several authors. Elizbarashvili et al (2013) found an increased frequency of extremely hot months during the 20th century, especially over eastern Georgia, whereas the number of extremely cold months decreased faster in the eastern than in the western region. In addition, the highest rates for positive trends in annual mean air temperature can be observed in the Caucasus Mountains.…”

Section: Regional Climatementioning

confidence: 90%

Large-scale drivers of Caucasus climate variability in meteorological records and Mt El'brus ice cores

et al. 2017

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Abstract. A 181.8 m ice core was recovered from a borehole drilled into bedrock on the western plateau of Mt El'brus (43°20′53.9′′ N, 42°25′36.0′′ E; 5115 m a.s.l.) in the Caucasus, Russia, in 2009 (Mikhalenko et al., 2015). Here, we report on the results of the water stable isotope composition from this ice core with additional data from the shallow cores. The distinct seasonal cycle of the isotopic composition allows dating by annual layer counting. Dating has been performed for the upper 126 m of the deep core combined with 20 m from the shallow cores. The whole record covers 100 years, from 2013 back to 1914. Due to the high accumulation rate (1380 mm w.e. year−1) and limited melting, we obtained isotopic composition and accumulation rate records with seasonal resolution. These values were compared with available meteorological data from 13 weather stations in the region and also with atmosphere circulation indices, back-trajectory calculations, and Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data in order to decipher the drivers of accumulation and ice core isotopic composition in the Caucasus region. In the warm season (May–October) the isotopic composition depends on local temperatures, but the correlation is not persistent over time, while in the cold season (November–April), atmospheric circulation is the predominant driver of the ice core's isotopic composition. The snow accumulation rate correlates well with the precipitation rate in the region all year round, which made it possible to reconstruct and expand the precipitation record at the Caucasus highlands from 1914 until 1966, when reliable meteorological observations of precipitation at high elevation began.

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Section: Regional Climatementioning

confidence: 90%

Large-scale drivers of Caucasus climate variability in meteorological records and Mt El'brus ice cores

et al. 2017

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“…To date, studies on past observed changes in temperature extremes over Georgia have been carried out based on monthly data and associated weather Ϯ and climate phenomena, such as drought, hurricanes and frost (Elizbarashvili, 2007(Elizbarashvili, , 2011(Elizbarashvili, , and 2012. Elizbarashvili (2013) found that the frequency of extremely hot months during the 20 th century increased and extremely cold months decreased faster in the Eastern Georgia than in its Western counterpart. In addition, highest rates on warming trends of mean annual air temperature can be observed in the Caucasus Mountains, while the lowest are detected in the dry eastern plains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From 1991 to the present the number of meteorological stations has fallen to around 60 (World Bank, 2006). Currently only 13 synoptic weather stations are working on the territory of Georgia (Elizbarashvili, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in Georgia׳s temperature means and extremes: Annual and seasonal trends between 1961 and 2010

Keggenhoff

Elizbarashvili

King

2015

Weather and Climate Extremes

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Sixteen temperature minimum and maximum series are used to quantify annual and seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes over Georgia (Southern Caucasus) during the period 1961 and 2010. Along with trends in mean minimum and maximum temperature, eight indices are selected from the list of climate extreme indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for studying trends in temperature extremes. Between the analysis periods 1961-2010, 1971-2010 and 1981-2010 pronounced warming trends are determined for all Georgia-averaged trends in temperature means and extremes, while all magnitudes of trends increase towards the most recent period. During 1981 and 2010, significant warming trends for annual minimum and maximum temperature at a rate of 0.39°C (0.47°C) days/decade and particularly for the warm temperature extremes, summer days, warm days and nights and the warm spell duration index are evident, whereas warm extremes show larger trends than cold extremes. The most pronounced trends are determined for summer days 6.2 days/decade, while the warm spell duration index indicates an increase in the occurrence of warm spells by 5.4 days/decade during 1981 and 2010. In the comparison of seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes, the largest magnitudes of warming trends can be observed for temperature maximum in summer and temperature minimum in fall. Between 1981 and 2010, summer maximum temperature shows a significant warming at a rate of 0.84 °C/decade, increasing almost twice as fast as its annual trend (0.47 °C/decade). The Georgia-averaged trends for temperature minimum in fall increase by 0.59 °C/decade. Strongest significant trends in temperature extremes are identified during 1981 and 2010 for warm nights (4.6 days/decade) in summer and fall as well as for warm days (5.6 days/decade) in summer. Analyses demonstrate that there have been increasing warming trends since the 1960s, particularly for warm extremes during summer and fall season, accompanied by a constant warming of temperature means in Georgia.

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“…During the last decades Georgia made great efforts in data recovery and monitoring extreme events and their impacts. Currently, 13 meteorological stations and 20 meteorological posts measuring temperature minimum and maximum and precipitation are working on the territory of Georgia [31]. In the course of data recovery and digitalization, the National Environmental Agency of Georgia (NEA) kindly contributed metadata to this study giving information about observation periods, and changes of locations of meteorological stations and post.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Wave Events over Georgia Since 1961: Climatology, Changes and Severity

Keggenhoff

Elizbarashvili

King

2015

Climate

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Abstract:The Caucasus Region has been affected by an increasing number of heat waves during the last decades, which have had serious impacts on human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems. A dataset of 22 homogenized, daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature series is developed to quantify climatology and summer heat wave changes for Georgia and Tbilisi station between 1961 and 2010 using the extreme heat factor (EHF) as heat wave index. The EHF is studied with respect to eight heat wave aspects: event number, duration, participating heat wave days, peak and mean magnitude, number of heat wave days, severe and extreme heat wave days. A severity threshold for each station was determined by the climatological distribution of heat wave intensity. Moreover, heat wave series of two indices focusing on the 90th percentile of daily minimum temperature (CTN90p) and the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature (CTX90p) were compared. The spatial distribution of heat wave characteristics over Georgia showed a concentration of high heat wave amplitudes and mean magnitudes in the Southwest. The longest and most frequently occurring heat wave events were observed in the Southeast of Georgia. Most severe heat wave events were found in both regions. Regarding the monthly distribution of heat waves, the largest proportion of severe events and highest intensities are measured during May. Trends for all Georgia-averaged heat wave aspects demonstrate significant increases in the number, intensity and duration of low-and high-intensity heat waves. However, for the heat wave mean magnitude no change was observed. Heat wave trend OPEN ACCESSClimate 2015, 3 309 magnitudes for Tbilisi mainly exceed the Georgia-averages and its surrounding stations, implying urban heat island (UHI) effects and synergistic interactions between heat waves and UHIs. Comparing heat wave aspects for CTN90p and CTX90p, all trend magnitudes for CTN90p were larger, while the correlation between the annual time-series was very high among all heat wave indices analyzed. This finding reflects the importance of integrating the most suitable heat wave index into a sector-specific impact analysis.

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Air temperature trends in Georgia under global warming conditions

Cited by 16 publications

References 8 publications

Large-scale drivers of Caucasus climate variability in meteorological records and Mt El'brus ice cores

Large-scale drivers of Caucasus climate variability in meteorological records and Mt El'brus ice cores

Recent changes in Georgia׳s temperature means and extremes: Annual and seasonal trends between 1961 and 2010

Heat Wave Events over Georgia Since 1961: Climatology, Changes and Severity

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