Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation

Randt, Niclas P.; Jeßberger, Christoph; Ploetner, Kay O.; Becker, Axel

doi:10.1504/ijam.2015.072377

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Each scenario is to be treated as equally plausible, if not, the scenario study would not be effective when working with conditions that are not going to be taken seriously. The approach to scenario building depicted here used at the Institute of Aircraft Design of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) has been successfully applied in several foresight projects, see Kuhlmann [10][11][12] This approach has been adapted from the work of Gausemeier et al, one of the early pioneering German literature having wide-ranging influences in the practical implementation of the explorative scenario methodology in business and industry. 13 Gausemeier et al broke down the scenario building process into five phases, namely the scenario preparation phase, which defines the "investigative object" of the scenario project and the time horizon of the project.…”

Section: B the Use Of Scenario Planning In Strategic Foresightmentioning

confidence: 99%

Green Airlines 2025: Environment and Sustainability in Commercial Aviation - A Scenario Study

Will

Tay

Becker

et al. 2016

16th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference

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Reducing the environmental impact is a great challenge for the aviation industry. However, the difficulty to anticipate future developments combined with long product lifecycles make strategy definition for aviation stakeholders challenging. This paper therefore presents a foresight project of a joint study by Airbus, Technical University of Munich, and Bauhaus Luftfahrt. The methodology uses a scenario approach to develop three alternative scenarios. They represent future situations of the aviation world in the year 2025 with focus on environmental topics. Driving factors of influence for the future development are identified, for instance, the world economy, environmental regulations, or the passenger's perception of aviation. Finally, strategic implications for airlines and aircraft manufacturers and possible fields of cooperation are discussed within the scenarios. Aircraft fleet renewals, for example, are considered as the most important step for airlines in all three scenarios. Sustainable fuels are not expected to have a significant contribution until 2025. I. Topic MotivationHE transport sector, in general, undoubtedly has a considerable impact on our environment. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), CO2 emissions caused by transport represent 23% of man-made CO2 emissions globally and 30% in OECD countries. 1 Reducing transportation's negative impacts on the environment thus is a crucial goal, e.g. for political institutions and the transportation industry. Aviation, more specifically, is responsible for around 2% of the total man-made CO2 emissions worldwide. 2 Apart from CO2 emissions further topics are of relevance for the aviation industry such as other gaseous emissions or local air quality and noise emissions in the vicinity of airports.These challenges are intensified by the comparatively high visibility of aviation in the public perception. Many airports face concerns and opposition to different degrees, e.g. by residents, due to the airport's environmental impact. In Europe, for instance, this is true for existing airports and for intended expansion projects in particular. Effective strategies are therefore required to enable sustainable growth for the aviation industry without negatively impacting today's quality of life or depleting the resources needed in the future. Consequently, efforts to minimize aviation's environmental impact play a major role in aircraft and engine design and manufacturing. Furthermore, aircraft operations are examined in order to reduce their environmental impact.

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Section: B the Use Of Scenario Planning In Strategic Foresightmentioning

confidence: 99%